The odds of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 rose slightly after Sunday’s debate with Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on a trade pact the administration seeks to sign with Beijing, according to a university prediction market yesterday.
On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of Ma winning re-election was NT$35.40, National Chengchi University Center for Prediction Market said.
It was higher than any other potential challengers such as Tsai, former premiers Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and Frank Hsieh (謝長廷). The likelihood for Tsai to win the 2012 election was NT$34.28, and that for Su and Hsieh was NT$14.90 and NT$6.80 respectively.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.
Since the center opened trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11 last year, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but rose to NT$70 in mid-June before falling to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.
After then-premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) resigned in September, the price returned to NT$63.2 and remained at around NT$60 for the following two months, the center said.
Since Ma took over as KMT chairman, the center said the number had steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5. The figure fell below NT$50 after the “three-in-one” local elections in December last year.
Su’s prices exceeded Ma’s on Jan. 8 this year for the first time, but the prices for Ma and Su held steady at around NT$35 since then. Hsieh also caught up in January, but his prices have held steady below NT$30 since January, trailing behind Ma and Su by NT$5 to NT$7.
Tsai emerged as the black horse among her male colleagues. The center attributed her growing popularity to a string of election victories. Under her leadership, the DPP has made significant gains in legislative by-elections.
The prospects for her winning the next presidential election jumped to NT$40 in January and beat the prices of Su and Hsieh on Jan. 29. Since February, her prices have stayed at around NT$40, about NT$3 to NT$8 more than those of Su and Hsieh.
Before Sunday’s debate, the possibility of Ma being re-elected was between NT$30 and NT$33, against Tsai’s NT$40. The chance of Su winning the 2012 election dropped from NT$18.4 to NT$5, while that for Hsieh floated between NT$7 and NT$10.
After the debate, the price for Ma rose NT$2 to NT$35.40, and that for Tsai dropped NT$7 to NT$34.28. Su’s, however, grew by NT$10 to NT$14.90, the center said.
A preclearance service to facilitate entry for people traveling to select airports in Japan would be available from Thursday next week to Feb. 25 at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport, Taoyuan International Airport Corp (TIAC) said on Tuesday. The service was first made available to Taiwanese travelers throughout the winter vacation of 2024 and during the Lunar New Year holiday. In addition to flights to the Japanese cities of Hakodate, Asahikawa, Akita, Sendai, Niigata, Okayama, Takamatsu, Kumamoto and Kagoshima, the service would be available to travelers to Kobe and Oita. The service can be accessed by passengers of 15 flight routes operated by
GIVE AND TAKE: Blood demand continues to rise each year, while fewer young donors are available due to the nation’s falling birthrate, a doctor said Blood donors can redeem points earned from donations to obtain limited edition Formosan black bear travel mugs, the Kaohsiung Blood Center said yesterday, as it announced a goal of stocking 20,000 units of blood prior to the Lunar New Year. The last month of the lunar year is National Blood Donation Month, when local centers seek to stockpile blood for use during the Lunar New Year holiday. The blood demand in southern Taiwan — including Tainan and Kaohsiung, as well as Chiayi, Pingtung, Penghu and Taitung counties — is about 2,000 units per day, the center said. The donation campaign aims to boost
ENHANCING EFFICIENCY: The apron can accommodate 16 airplanes overnight at Taoyuan airport while work on the third runway continues, the transport minister said A new temporary overnight parking apron at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport is to start operating on Friday next week to boost operational efficiency while the third runway is being constructed, the Ministry of Transportation and Communications said yesterday. The apron — one of the crucial projects in the construction of the third runway — can accommodate 16 aircraft overnight at the nation’s largest international airport, Minister of Transportation and Communications Chen Shih-kai (陳世凱) told reporters while inspecting the new facility yesterday morning. Aside from providing the airport operator with greater flexibility in aircraft parking during the third runway construction,
American climber Alex Honnold is to attempt a free climb of Taipei 101 today at 9am, with traffic closures around the skyscraper. To accommodate the climb attempt and filming, the Taipei Department of Transportation said traffic controls would be enforced around the Taipei 101 area. If weather conditions delay the climb, the restrictions would be pushed back to tomorrow. Traffic controls would be in place today from 7am to 11am around the Taipei 101 area, the department said. Songzhi Road would be fully closed in both directions between Songlian Road and Xinyi Road Sec 5, it said, adding that bidirectional traffic controls would
RSS