The odds of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 rose slightly after Sunday’s debate with Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on a trade pact the administration seeks to sign with Beijing, according to a university prediction market yesterday.
On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of Ma winning re-election was NT$35.40, National Chengchi University Center for Prediction Market said.
It was higher than any other potential challengers such as Tsai, former premiers Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and Frank Hsieh (謝長廷). The likelihood for Tsai to win the 2012 election was NT$34.28, and that for Su and Hsieh was NT$14.90 and NT$6.80 respectively.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.
Since the center opened trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11 last year, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but rose to NT$70 in mid-June before falling to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.
After then-premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) resigned in September, the price returned to NT$63.2 and remained at around NT$60 for the following two months, the center said.
Since Ma took over as KMT chairman, the center said the number had steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5. The figure fell below NT$50 after the “three-in-one” local elections in December last year.
Su’s prices exceeded Ma’s on Jan. 8 this year for the first time, but the prices for Ma and Su held steady at around NT$35 since then. Hsieh also caught up in January, but his prices have held steady below NT$30 since January, trailing behind Ma and Su by NT$5 to NT$7.
Tsai emerged as the black horse among her male colleagues. The center attributed her growing popularity to a string of election victories. Under her leadership, the DPP has made significant gains in legislative by-elections.
The prospects for her winning the next presidential election jumped to NT$40 in January and beat the prices of Su and Hsieh on Jan. 29. Since February, her prices have stayed at around NT$40, about NT$3 to NT$8 more than those of Su and Hsieh.
Before Sunday’s debate, the possibility of Ma being re-elected was between NT$30 and NT$33, against Tsai’s NT$40. The chance of Su winning the 2012 election dropped from NT$18.4 to NT$5, while that for Hsieh floated between NT$7 and NT$10.
After the debate, the price for Ma rose NT$2 to NT$35.40, and that for Tsai dropped NT$7 to NT$34.28. Su’s, however, grew by NT$10 to NT$14.90, the center said.
Beijing could eventually see a full amphibious invasion of Taiwan as the only "prudent" way to bring about unification, the US Department of Defense said in a newly released annual report to Congress. The Pentagon's "Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2025," was in many ways similar to last year’s report but reorganized the analysis of the options China has to take over Taiwan. Generally, according to the report, Chinese leaders view the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) capabilities for a Taiwan campaign as improving, but they remain uncertain about its readiness to successfully seize
Taiwan is getting a day off on Christmas for the first time in 25 years. The change comes after opposition parties passed a law earlier this year to add or restore five public holidays, including Constitution Day, which falls on today, Dec. 25. The day marks the 1947 adoption of the constitution of the Republic of China, as the government in Taipei is formally known. Back then the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) governed China from Nanjing. When the KMT, now an opposition party in Taiwan, passed the legislation on holidays, it said that they would help “commemorate the history of national development.” That
Taiwan has overtaken South Korea this year in per capita income for the first time in 23 years, IMF data showed. Per capita income is a nation’s GDP divided by the total population, used to compare average wealth levels across countries. Taiwan also beat Japan this year on per capita income, after surpassing it for the first time last year, US magazine Newsweek reported yesterday. Across Asia, Taiwan ranked fourth for per capita income at US$37,827 this year due to sustained economic growth, the report said. In the top three spots were Singapore, Macau and Hong Kong, it said. South
Police today said they are stepping up patrols throughout the Taipei MRT system, after a social media user threatened to detonate a bomb at an unspecified station this afternoon. Although they strongly believe the threat to be unsubstantiated, Taipei Metro police and the Railway Police Bureau still said that security and patrols would be heightened through the system. Many copycat messages have been posted since Friday’s stabbing attacks at Taipei Main Station and near Zhongshan MRT Station that left three dead and 11 injured, police said. Last night, a Threads user in a post said they would detonate a bomb on the Taipei
RSS