The odds of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 rose slightly after Sunday’s debate with Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on a trade pact the administration seeks to sign with Beijing, according to a university prediction market yesterday.
On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of Ma winning re-election was NT$35.40, National Chengchi University Center for Prediction Market said.
It was higher than any other potential challengers such as Tsai, former premiers Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and Frank Hsieh (謝長廷). The likelihood for Tsai to win the 2012 election was NT$34.28, and that for Su and Hsieh was NT$14.90 and NT$6.80 respectively.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.
Since the center opened trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11 last year, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but rose to NT$70 in mid-June before falling to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.
After then-premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) resigned in September, the price returned to NT$63.2 and remained at around NT$60 for the following two months, the center said.
Since Ma took over as KMT chairman, the center said the number had steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5. The figure fell below NT$50 after the “three-in-one” local elections in December last year.
Su’s prices exceeded Ma’s on Jan. 8 this year for the first time, but the prices for Ma and Su held steady at around NT$35 since then. Hsieh also caught up in January, but his prices have held steady below NT$30 since January, trailing behind Ma and Su by NT$5 to NT$7.
Tsai emerged as the black horse among her male colleagues. The center attributed her growing popularity to a string of election victories. Under her leadership, the DPP has made significant gains in legislative by-elections.
The prospects for her winning the next presidential election jumped to NT$40 in January and beat the prices of Su and Hsieh on Jan. 29. Since February, her prices have stayed at around NT$40, about NT$3 to NT$8 more than those of Su and Hsieh.
Before Sunday’s debate, the possibility of Ma being re-elected was between NT$30 and NT$33, against Tsai’s NT$40. The chance of Su winning the 2012 election dropped from NT$18.4 to NT$5, while that for Hsieh floated between NT$7 and NT$10.
After the debate, the price for Ma rose NT$2 to NT$35.40, and that for Tsai dropped NT$7 to NT$34.28. Su’s, however, grew by NT$10 to NT$14.90, the center said.
Eight Chinese naval vessels and 24 military aircraft were detected crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait between 6am yesterday and 6am today, the Ministry of National Defense said this morning. The aircraft entered Taiwan’s northern, central, southwestern and eastern air defense identification zones, the ministry said. The armed forces responded with mission aircraft, naval vessels and shore-based missile systems to closely monitor the situation, it added. Eight naval vessels, one official ship and 36 aircraft sorties were spotted in total, the ministry said.
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