The administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) must map out a broader and longer-term strategy in addition to deregulation and liberalization of cross-strait policies, a former deputy minister of national defense said yesterday.
Lin Chong-pin (林中斌) said that Beijing’s Taiwan strategy has gradually shifted from carrots and sticks to “more carrot than stick” and constraining Taipei through Washington.
Beijing continues to maintain its massive deployment of missiles against Taiwan, suppress Taiwan’s international space, insist on its “one China” policy and build up its military to deter the US and seize Taiwan.
Since Ma took office, Beijing has given more importance to non-military means than military intimidation, begun to engage Taipei, as well as adopted a more flexible approach, Lin said.
One of the immediate examples is the apology issued by China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) for the scandal over melamine-tainted food, Lin said.
“It shows the fundamental principle of its policy toward Taiwan, which is to engage Taiwan and its people,” he said. “It has learned from its reaction to former president Lee Teng-hui’s (李登輝) ‘state-to-state’ theory in 1999 that it will not get anything by intimidating the Taiwanese.”
Lin made the remarks during a question-and-answer session during a book launch in Taipei yesterday morning. The book, Perchance Prescient — Opeds and Observations on Taiwan Security and Beyond, is a compilation of articles Lin has written over the years.
Lin said cross-strait tensions had eased since Ma took office and it was possible that both sides would establish liaison offices. The upcoming meeting between Straits Exchange Foundation Chairman Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤) and ARATS Chairman Chen Yunlin (陳雲林) is a by-product of the cross-strait detente.
Whether such atmosphere will continue hinges on three factors, Lin said. First is whether the power struggle in China will become more apparent. Second is whether China’s economic boom will continue. Third is whether its domestic protests will join forces.
Commenting on the demonstration organized by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and other pro-localization groups last Saturday, Lin said the Ma administration could turn it into an advantage.
“If the Ma administration is smart, it can use it as leverage to bargain with Beijing to make more concessions,” he said.
While some have expressed concern over the administration’s more liberal cross-strait policies and that the Ma administration is too hasty in developing closer relations with Beijing, Lin said his US contacts, from both the Democratic and Republican parties, thought differently.
More cross-strait exchanges would help promote Taiwan’s democracy through the visits of Chinese officials and the social elite, Lin said, adding that more interactions seem the best way in the long run.
As Taiwan is a small country, Lin said it must learn to rely not on its military might but its soft power such as culture, conventional wisdom and diplomatic strategy to outperform bigger countries.
The stable relationship between Beijing and Washington only helps stabilize cross-strait relations, he said.
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