The government is likely to maintain its current policy toward China after Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) replaced Jiang Zemin (江澤民) as chairman of China's Central Military Commission, analysts said yesterday.
"It is unrealistic to expect Hu will soften the stance on political issues [about Taiwan]. Hu will probably adopt a harder line than Jiang on practicing the `one China' policy," said Chang Wu-yen (
Government officials, from President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) to Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Vice Chairman Chiu Tai-san (邱太三) to legislators from both the ruling and opposition parties, were consistent in cautioning against excessive optimism over Hu's leadership.
Cautious
The government's cautions were seen as being in contrast to the widespread impression that Hu would take a softer approach in tackling the Taiwan problem than Jiang.
Chang, however, concurred with the position.
The government is right in warning the public not to expect China to dramatically change its Taiwan policy after Hu took over the military, Chang said.
Chang, however, urged the government not to miss potential opportunities to communicate with China in the following months.
"The government should not assume Hu is someone Taiwan cannot talk to," he said.
Although Hu is no less a hardliner on Taiwan than Jiang, he cares more about ordinary people's lives than Jiang and is dedicated to strengthening China's economy, Chang said.
Given that Hu and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (
Taiwan should try to establish a normal trade framework with China, "but the framework must not be an internal one within China," Chang said.
Show goodwill
One Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) member, Hsu Shu-fen (
President Chen has undertaken many efforts to show Beijing Taiwan's goodwill, including forming several committees to promote peace across the Taiwan Strait, Hsu said.
However, she noted Beijing has been reluctant to recognize the DPP government since the party came to power four years ago.
"If the pan-green parties win a majority of seats in the year-end legislative elections, maybe China will recognize our government and accept the reality," Hsu said.
But Alexander Huang (黃介正), director of Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of Strategic and International Studies, said that "change of leaders does not necessarily mean change of policies."
Huang, a former vice chairman of the MAC, said China and Taiwan should say "more nice words" to each other.
Describing cross-strait relations as "a chess game" between Taiwan and China, Huang indicated Taipei should decide what to do after Beijing makes its move.
Government officials' comments over the past two days meant to prevent the pubic from harboring unrealistic expectations of Hu's leadership, he added.
MAC Chairman Joseph Wu (
The power struggle in Beijing has led to divided opinions on various issues, he said.
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