Fri, Sep 03, 2004 page3

• China's strategy a puzzle

  LEVELS OF IGNORANCE What's clear is that even the experts haven't got a clue what China has in store now that Chen is back in office; even Beijing may not be sure

  • By Joy Su / STAFF REPORTER
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  While China's goal of "peaceful unification" under the "one country, two systems" model remains unchanged, it is unclear how the Chinese authorities will attempt to establish a channel for interaction with Taiwan in the long term, analysts said yesterday at a forum exploring China's Taiwan policy since the presidential election.

  "In the past, China's Taiwan policy was aimed at the Chinese Nationalist Party [KMT], but now it is directed at the Democratic Progressive Party [DPP]," said Yang Kai-huang (楊開煌), a political science professor at National Dong-hwa University. "China used to focus more on the outcome of elections and whether the DPP was gaining a foothold. In the future, however, China's Taiwan policy will transcend party politics and the outcomes of individual elections."

  Chao Chun-shan (趙春山), a professor at Tamkang University's Institute of China Studies, said the period following legislative elections in December and the US presidential election in November would be crucial.

  "China has finally accepted that the DPP is the ruling party in Taiwan; this is a fact they cannot deny," Chao said. "But China's goal of bringing about unification under the `one country, two systems' model has not changed."

  Chang Wu-yen (張五岳), also a professor at Tamkang University's Institute of China Studies, pointed out that a policy of "differentiated treatment" is the most notable change in China's Taiwan policy after President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) inauguration speech on May 20. Chang distinguished between policies countering Taiwanese independence and policies trying to bring about unification.

  He cited examples of preferential treatment for Taiwanese businesspeople who oppose Taiwanese independence and the difficulties faced by so-called "green taishang," or China-based Taiwanese businesspeople who support pan-green parties.

  Chang said the policy of differential treatment derived from a pessimistic outlook on China's part.

  "The Chinese authorities are taking a pessimistic stance on Taiwan's political development. The possibility that the pan-green camp will win more than half of the legislative seats in the upcoming elections means that it is possible that the Constitution will be changed to lower the threshold requirements for conducting a referendum," Chang said.

  "President Chen has already made his stance on the Constitution clear, but China is failing to see that which is 99 percent likely to happen. They focus instead on the remaining 1 percent," he said.

  However, Chao pointed to the difficulties involved in filtering fact from propaganda in cross-strait communication.

  "Often, what you get is just disinformation. The difficulty lies in how to separate fact from propaganda ... you can't get the answer from science. In cross-strait analysis, there are no experts, just people with different levels of ignorance," Chao said.
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