President Chen Shui-bian (
Chen will likely insist that he is best able to protect the nation against China, while Lien was expected to argue he would be more successful in securing peace with Beijing, analysts said.
The centerpiece of Chen's campaign is the nation's first referendum, which will partly focus on China's missile threat. On the same day as the presidential election, voters will be asked whether the military should bolster its defenses if China refuses to remove hundreds of missiles pointed at the country. Voters will also be asked whether the government should push for talks with its giant rival.
Today, the candidates will likely open the debate by trading familiar accusations, said Lo Chih-cheng (
"Chen will picture the opposition as pro-China, and Lien will question the government's credibility," Lo said.
Yang Kai-huang (
Lien on the other hand will accuse Chen of making no progress in relations with China, Yang said.
"Lien will say that over the past four years, Chen has not achieved a peaceful solution to the conflict, while relations have grown more and more tense," Yang said.
But the academics also expect both candidates to come up with at least partially new proposals.
The candidates could try and repackage old ideas about peace agreements with China, Lo said.
Lien's original plan mentioned that such an agreement should remain valid for 50 years, Chen's for 20 years, Lo said.
Yang also expects the candidates to roll out peace plans and promises of progress on other issues.
More than 500,000 Taiwanese businesspeople are active in China, and they resent the discomfort and expense of having to travel through a third location, often Hong Kong.
But whoever wins the election, Lo is optimistic about relations with China. If Lien is the next president, then progress is likely, he said. But even if Chen manages to be re-elected, Lo sees changes ahead.
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