Taiwan’s population might start to decline in 2022, three years earlier than the government forecasted in 2016, as fertility rates have become more parlous than expected, the National Development Council (NDC) said yesterday.
If left unchecked, the population might shrink by 30 percent by 2065, with the demographic dividend — the economic growth potential linked to a larger share of the working-age population than the non-working-age population — vanishing in 2027, NDC Minister Chen Mei-ling (陳美伶) said.
“The trend is worrying and demands quick and comprehensive remedies,” Chen told a news conference in Taipei, citing the council’s latest estimate on the nation’s demographics.
Photo: Hung Mei-hsiu, Taipei Times
New births fell by 5,800 in the first seven months of this year from the same period last year, as existing measures failed to reverse the decline, she said.
The council conducts a population estimate every two years to help guide response measures.
The fertility rate — the average number of children born per woman — dropped from 1.17 in 2016 to 1.13 last year, both slightly less than the prior forecast, the council said.
The nation’s population is now expected to peak in 2021 at 23.61 million people and then trend downward as more Taiwanese marry late and choose not to have children, it said.
The working population — those aged between 15 and 65 — might fall 10 percent in 2030, and the retreat might widen to 49.6 percent in 2065, it added.
A shrinking labor pool suggests lower productivity and bodes ill for the economy, Chen said.
One in two Taiwanese would be aged 50 or older in 2034, with the college-age population totaling fewer than 200,000 people in 2036, the council said.
Meanwhile, the number of people aged 65 or older would grow.
Taiwan became an aging society in March, with those aged 65 or older accounting for 14 percent of the population, Chen said, adding that the ratio is expected to surpass 20 percent in 2026.
European countries have raised their threshold for senior citizens from 65 to 67 years old to reflect a longer life span, she said.
The government has set a target of maintaining the population at more than 20 million people with a birth rate of 1.25 in 2022 and 1.4 in 2030, Chen said, adding that it has increased funding to support childcare and education in addition to a one-off subsidy for childbirth.
The government also plans to make Taiwan friendlier for immigration by easing residency and work requirements for foreigners, she said, adding that a proposal to make English an official language is part of that endeavor.
The Ministry of the Interior (MOI) is to tighten rules for candidates running for public office, requiring them to declare that they do not hold a Chinese household registration or passport, and that they possess no other foreign citizenship. The requirement was set out in a draft amendment to the Enforcement Rules of the Public Officials Election and Recall Act (公職人員選舉罷免法 ) released by the ministry on Thursday. Under the proposal, candidates would need to make the declaration when submitting their registration forms, which would be published in the official election bulletin. The move follows the removal of several elected officials who were
The Republic of China (ROC) is celebrating its 114th Double Ten National Day today, featuring military parades and a variety of performances and speeches in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei. The Taiwan Taiko Association opened the celebrations with a 100-drummer performance, including young percussionists. As per tradition, an air force Mirage 2000 fighter jet flew over the Presidential Office as a part of the performance. The Honor Guards of the ROC and its marching band also heralded in a military parade. Students from Taichung's Shin Min High School then followed with a colorful performance using floral imagery to represent Taiwan's alternate name
FOUR DESIGNATED AREAS: Notices were issued for live-fire exercises in waters south and northwest of Penghu, northeast of Keelung and west of Kaohsiung, they said The military is planning three major annual exercises across the army, navy and air force this month, with the navy’s “Hai Chiang” (海強, “Sea Strong”) drills running from today through Thursday, the Ministry of National Defense said yesterday. The Hai Chiang exercise, which is to take place in waters surrounding Taiwan, would feature P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft and S-70C anti-submarine helicopters, the ministry said, adding that the drills aim to bolster the nation’s offshore defensive capabilities. China has intensified military and psychological pressure against Taiwan, repeatedly sending warplanes and vessels into areas near the nation’s air defense identification zone and across
A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would severely threaten the national security of the US, Japan, the Philippines and other nations, while global economic losses could reach US$10 trillion, National Security Council Deputy Secretary-General Lin Fei-fan (林飛帆) wrote in an article published yesterday in Foreign Affairs. “The future of Taiwan is not merely a regional concern; it is a test of whether the international order can withstand the pressure of authoritarian expansionism,” Lin wrote in the article titled “Taiwan’s Plan for Peace Through Strength — How Investments in Resilience Can Deter Beijing.” Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) intent to take Taiwan by force
RSS