Taiwan’s population might start to decline in 2022, three years earlier than the government forecasted in 2016, as fertility rates have become more parlous than expected, the National Development Council (NDC) said yesterday.
If left unchecked, the population might shrink by 30 percent by 2065, with the demographic dividend — the economic growth potential linked to a larger share of the working-age population than the non-working-age population — vanishing in 2027, NDC Minister Chen Mei-ling (陳美伶) said.
“The trend is worrying and demands quick and comprehensive remedies,” Chen told a news conference in Taipei, citing the council’s latest estimate on the nation’s demographics.
Photo: Hung Mei-hsiu, Taipei Times
New births fell by 5,800 in the first seven months of this year from the same period last year, as existing measures failed to reverse the decline, she said.
The council conducts a population estimate every two years to help guide response measures.
The fertility rate — the average number of children born per woman — dropped from 1.17 in 2016 to 1.13 last year, both slightly less than the prior forecast, the council said.
The nation’s population is now expected to peak in 2021 at 23.61 million people and then trend downward as more Taiwanese marry late and choose not to have children, it said.
The working population — those aged between 15 and 65 — might fall 10 percent in 2030, and the retreat might widen to 49.6 percent in 2065, it added.
A shrinking labor pool suggests lower productivity and bodes ill for the economy, Chen said.
One in two Taiwanese would be aged 50 or older in 2034, with the college-age population totaling fewer than 200,000 people in 2036, the council said.
Meanwhile, the number of people aged 65 or older would grow.
Taiwan became an aging society in March, with those aged 65 or older accounting for 14 percent of the population, Chen said, adding that the ratio is expected to surpass 20 percent in 2026.
European countries have raised their threshold for senior citizens from 65 to 67 years old to reflect a longer life span, she said.
The government has set a target of maintaining the population at more than 20 million people with a birth rate of 1.25 in 2022 and 1.4 in 2030, Chen said, adding that it has increased funding to support childcare and education in addition to a one-off subsidy for childbirth.
The government also plans to make Taiwan friendlier for immigration by easing residency and work requirements for foreigners, she said, adding that a proposal to make English an official language is part of that endeavor.
‘IRRATIONAL ACTS’: The defense ministry condemned the drills, during which China tested successors to missiles deployed during the Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995 and 1996 China yesterday fired several Dongfeng ballistic missiles as it began four days of unprecedented military drills off Taiwan proper following US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei the previous day. On Tuesday, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅) said Beijing would “take all necessary measures” in retaliation should Pelosi visit Taiwan during her Asia tour. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from 1:56pm to 4pm fired 11 Dongfeng missiles into waters north, east and south of Taiwan proper, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) said. Taiwanese armed forces, using “forward warning and surveillance mechanisms,” monitored the missile tests
ANNEXATION PLANS: Remarks by the Chinese ambassador to France showed that Beijing seeks to normalize genocide, re-education and gulags, a US official said European and US officials condemned comments from Chinese Ambassador to France Lu Shaye (盧沙野), after he on Wednesday said that Taiwanese would be “re-educated” after any annexation by China. In an interview on French television, Lu accused the Democratic Progressive Party of “extremist” propaganda and turning Taiwanese against “reunification” with China. “We will re-educate. I’m sure that the Taiwanese population will again become favorable of the reunification and will become patriots again,” Lu told BFM TV. The term “re-education” has been used to describe Chinese authorities’ treatment of Uighurs and other Muslim minority groups in Xinjiang. European Parliament Subcommittee on Security and Defense Chairwoman
SOLIDARITY: A group of European lawmakers condemned China’s aggressive moves, while the foreign minister of Lithuania said Taiwan ‘cannot become a second Ukraine’ A German parliamentary delegation would visit Taiwan in the first week of October, German lawmaker Holger Becker on Monday told visiting Democratic Progressive Party legislators Fan Yun (范雲) and Lin I-chin (林宜瑾) at the Bundestag in Berlin. Asked by Fan whether he is worried about possible reprisals from Beijing, such as banning him and his family from entering China, Becker said he is more interested in visiting Taiwan, as “now is the time for democracies to stand together.” Fan and Lin also met with German officials to exchange views on digital education and governance. Investing in digital infrastructure and protecting equal rights to
‘SIMULATED ATTACKS’: Ten warships each from China and Taiwan were maneuvering at close quarters in the Taiwan Strait, with some Chinese vessels crossing the median line Taiwan yesterday reiterated that it would not succumb to pressure from Beijing after China carried out its most provocative military drills in decades in retaliation for US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan last week. “We will never bow to pressure. We uphold freedom and democracy, and believe Taiwanese disapprove [of] China’s bullying actions with force and saber rattling at our door,” Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) said yesterday. China had “arrogantly” disrupted regional peace and stability, he said, calling on Beijing to not flex its military muscles. President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has also called on the international community to “support
RSS