Taiwan’s population might start to decline in 2022, three years earlier than the government forecasted in 2016, as fertility rates have become more parlous than expected, the National Development Council (NDC) said yesterday.
If left unchecked, the population might shrink by 30 percent by 2065, with the demographic dividend — the economic growth potential linked to a larger share of the working-age population than the non-working-age population — vanishing in 2027, NDC Minister Chen Mei-ling (陳美伶) said.
“The trend is worrying and demands quick and comprehensive remedies,” Chen told a news conference in Taipei, citing the council’s latest estimate on the nation’s demographics.
Photo: Hung Mei-hsiu, Taipei Times
New births fell by 5,800 in the first seven months of this year from the same period last year, as existing measures failed to reverse the decline, she said.
The council conducts a population estimate every two years to help guide response measures.
The fertility rate — the average number of children born per woman — dropped from 1.17 in 2016 to 1.13 last year, both slightly less than the prior forecast, the council said.
The nation’s population is now expected to peak in 2021 at 23.61 million people and then trend downward as more Taiwanese marry late and choose not to have children, it said.
The working population — those aged between 15 and 65 — might fall 10 percent in 2030, and the retreat might widen to 49.6 percent in 2065, it added.
A shrinking labor pool suggests lower productivity and bodes ill for the economy, Chen said.
One in two Taiwanese would be aged 50 or older in 2034, with the college-age population totaling fewer than 200,000 people in 2036, the council said.
Meanwhile, the number of people aged 65 or older would grow.
Taiwan became an aging society in March, with those aged 65 or older accounting for 14 percent of the population, Chen said, adding that the ratio is expected to surpass 20 percent in 2026.
European countries have raised their threshold for senior citizens from 65 to 67 years old to reflect a longer life span, she said.
The government has set a target of maintaining the population at more than 20 million people with a birth rate of 1.25 in 2022 and 1.4 in 2030, Chen said, adding that it has increased funding to support childcare and education in addition to a one-off subsidy for childbirth.
The government also plans to make Taiwan friendlier for immigration by easing residency and work requirements for foreigners, she said, adding that a proposal to make English an official language is part of that endeavor.
INCURSION: After 13 PLA aircraft flew into Taiwan’s ADIZ, the US Department of State said that China should rather ‘engage in meaningful dialogue’ with Taiwan US President Joe Biden’s administration on Saturday urged China to stop placing military pressure on Taiwan, while calling on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to engage in peaceful dialogue. The statement by the US Department of State was issued after 13 Chinese military aircraft flew into Taiwan’s southwest air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Saturday, the highest number observed in a single day this year, the Ministry of National Defense said. The air force scrambled fighter jets to monitor the Chinese aircraft, issuing radio warnings and mobilizing air defense assets until the planes left the ADIZ. The US “notes
‘INCREASED VIGILANCE’: A source of infection has not yet been found for the latest two cases in a hospital cluster, which should serve as a warning, Chen Shih-chung said A total of 2,991 people associated with a COVID-19 cluster infection at Taoyuan General Hospital have been put under home isolation, after an emergency expanded isolation order was issued on Sunday evening, the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) said yesterday. Fifteen people have so far tested positive in the cluster infection. The first case in the cluster (case No. 838) was reported on Jan. 12 — a doctor who treated an infected patient who had returned from the US. Contact tracing for the first 13 cases found connections to case No. 838, said Minister of Health and Welfare Chen Shih-chung (陳時中), who
CHANGE OF GUARD: Hsiao Bi-khim’s attendance at Joe Biden’s inauguration will come as a boost to those in Taiwan who feared that the new US administration would be less friendly than that of Donald Trump to the nation Representative to the US Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) is to attend US President Joe Biden’s swearing-in ceremony at the US Capitol after she was invited by the US Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies, a news release issued by the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO) in the US said last night. The news came as a surprise as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had been reticent about the matter, while Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) members had accused the Democratic Progressive Party administration of hedging its bets on the Republican Party. Asked about when Hsiao received the invitation, the ministry did not
FAMILY UNIT: The CECC warned that the eldest sister of the latest case, who also has COVID-19, visited Taoyuan’s Chungping evening market on Tuesday and Wednesday The Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) yesterday reported a domestic case of COVID-19, associated with a recent cluster infection at Taoyuan General Hospital, and two imported cases. Minister of Health and Welfare Chen Shih-chung (陳時中), who heads the center, said that the latest case (No. 885) is a woman in her 50s, who is the third daughter of case No. 881, a man in his 90s. The woman is the main caregiver of her elderly father, who had been hospitalized earlier this month and was treated by a nurse (case No. 852) from Monday to Thursday last week, he said, adding that
RSS