A new US government report on China’s expanding missile systems might have particular relevance for Taiwan.
“China’s missiles now threaten America’s ability to gather forces in Okinawa and the Philippines, as well as Guam, that may be needed to deter or repel a Chinese attack on Taiwan,” Asian military affairs expert at the International Assessment and Strategy Center Richard Fisher said.
According to a report by the US Congress-funded US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Beijing has developed conventional missile capabilities to target US military facilities throughout the Asia-Pacific in general, and Guam in particular.
The move would expand China’s options and improve its capacity to deter or deny US intervention during a cross-strait crisis, it said.
“The China commission’s report on the Chinese missile threats to Guam is a welcome reminder that Taiwan is not the only target for China’s growing missile arsenal,” Fisher told the Taipei Times.
He said that China understands that the US’ regional bases are essential to Washington’s ability to defend Taiwan and Beijing will likely attack those bases if it ever launches hostilities against Taiwan.
“China’s new missile threats are a stark warning to Taipei and Washington that both must work to develop and deploy new energy weapons like railguns to begin to effectively counter China’s missiles,” Fisher said.
“If the US is unable to rapidly deploy and field new generation defensive systems like railguns, then it is necessary for Washington to develop and deploy its own family of long-range missiles in Asia,” he said. “We must assist allies and friends like Taiwan to rapidly acquire missiles that can deter Chinese missile attacks.”
The report said that several new conventional platforms and weapons systems developed by China in recent years have increased its ability to put US forces stationed on Guam at risk in a potential conflict.
“Currently, accuracy limitations and platform vulnerabilities render this risk relatively low, but China’s commitment to continuing to modernize its strike capabilities indicates the risk will likely grow going forward,” the report said.
A particular worry is the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, which is not yet a precision strike weapon, but potentially of concern in large numbers. The DF-26 antiship ballistic missile, which is unproven against a moving target at sea, but undergoing further development, and air-launched land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) are also a concern, the report said.
It also mentioned air-launched antiship cruise missiles (ASCMs) and sea-launched ASCMs, which could be a concern should the platforms be able to move into range undetected — a challenge for China’s “relatively noisy” submarines.
Lastly, there are sea-launched LACMs, which China does not currently field, but is likely working to develop, it said.
“To evaluate China’s ability to strike Guam going forward, the areas that should be monitored most closely are increased deployments of DF-26 missiles and qualitative improvements to China’s precision strike capabilities, bomber fleet, in-air refueling capability and submarine quieting technology,” it said.
The report said that one prime reason China is developing capabilities to put locations in the Pacific at risk is what China’s latest defense white paper refers to as “the unification of the motherland” — a reference to Taiwan.
It said that Chinese military analysts assert that a Taiwan independent of Chinese control provides the US with an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” that could allow it to contain China militarily, isolate it politically and blockade it economically.
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