Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, runaway leader in opinion polls six months ago, now finds himself in danger of being voted out of office in an election later this year, two surveys found yesterday.
The poll figures suggest a protest against Rudd for shelving his landmark emissions trade scheme and comes as the big mining companies pressure the government over its planned mining profits tax.
Voters also appear to support the opposition's hardline stance on asylum seekers.
Support for the Labor government dropped three points in a month to 47 percent on a two-party basis, a Nielsen poll in Fairfax newspapers found, while Tony Abbott’s conservative opposition was on an election winning 53 percent.
The Greens were the big winners in the drop in primary support for the government, up two points in the month to 15 percent.
Major differences are unlikely on many economic policies, but the opposition has vowed to abandon the mining tax if it wins office and also refuses to consider an emissions trading scheme.
“The mining tax is bleeding Labor nationally, not just in affected areas, Age newspaper political editor Michelle Grattan wrote. “The results emphasize the government's need to sort out its final position soon, but Rudd has been in no hurry.”
The government wants to push through a controversial 40 percent tax on mining profits.
Rudd acknowledged the poll numbers and said he needed to work harder to explain his policies, although he stood firm on his plan for the mining tax, due to start in July 2012.
“The reason for this reform, the reason for this big reform, is to keep our economy strong and globally competitive for the future. That is why we are doing it,” Rudd told Australian radio.
“The other reason, of course, is to ensure that all Australians get a fair share from the resources which they, the Australian people, ultimately own,” he said.
The next election, likely around October, will be partly fought over the new tax, which underpins Rudd's strategy to boost retirement incomes and wipe out the fiscal deficit by 2012 to 2013.
A second survey, a Newspoll commissioned by the mining industry and published in the Australian daily, was conducted in nine marginal seats and found the tax could cost Rudd the election.
The Nielsen poll found despite the fall in government support, Rudd remains preferred prime minister with 49 percent support, compared with 39 percent for Abbott.
Pollster John Stirton said the results appeared to signal a protest vote against Rudd, one now big enough to tip Labor out of office if it continued through to election day.
However, Stirton said Rudd's lead as preferred prime minister would pose a big problem for the opposition in a campaign.
“I think once the election comes around and voters start to focus their minds on who they really want, that number is going to be crucial,” Stirton told Australian television.
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