Israel is set on a collision course with the EU and could turn into a pariah state, like South Africa during the apartheid years, if the Mideast conflict is not resolved, Israel's Foreign Ministry warns in a confidential 10-year forecast obtained by reporters.
The 25-page document, put together by the ministry's Center for Political Research, says the EU is pushing to become a major global player in the next decade, and that as a result, the US, Israel's main ally, could lose international influence. Reporters obtained a copy on Wednesday.
PHOTO: AP
The analysts wrote that if the EU, a 25-nation alliance, overcomes internal divisions and speaks in one voice, its global influence would grow, and be more in line with its powerful economy.
Up to now, Europe has rarely been able to unite on major foreign policy issues.
A more influential Europe would likely demand greater Israeli compliance with international conventions and could try to limit Israel's freedom of action in its conflict with the Palestinians, the document said. Israel might also have to pay a price for growing competition between the EU and the US.
Israel-EU relations have long been shaky, and Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom has repeatedly warned that Israel has to work to strengthen ties with Europe. However, Israel also accuses the Europeans of pro-Palestinian bias, and complains of a growing wave of anti-Semitism in parts of Europe.
EU officials in Brussels said that while the EU and Israel have sound relations in the areas of trade and scientific research, they have very definite differences of opinion over Mideast peacemaking.
They also said the alliance is seeking more of a say.
"Regarding the Middle East peace process and our relations with Israel and the Palestinians, there is no doubt that the role of the EU has increased," said Christina Gallach, a spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana.
The EU says Israel's planned withdrawal from the Gaza Strip next year must be followed by major troop withdrawals in the West Bank, and pave the way for Palestinian statehood.
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