China isn’t likely to set a timetable on unification with Taiwan during its 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), says John Burns, a specialist on China’s public administration. Instead, it will continue to increase economic, diplomatic and political pressure on Taipei.
“I do not think it makes sense to announce a timetable,” Burns tells the Taipei Times. “A timetable could reduce flexibility... The CCP may not want to be committed to such a timetable, for example, if a more reunification-friendly government comes into power on Taiwan in the future.”
Burns, an honorary professor in the Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Hong Kong and a specialist in Chinese civil service reform, party-government relations and public sector reform, will be in Taipei on Saturday to give a lecture, “Xi Jinping and the Reinvention of the Chinese Communist Party,” for the Lung Yingtai Cultural Foundation (龍應台文化基金會) as part of its Taipei Salon (台北沙龍) lecture series.
Photo courtesy of John Burns
The English-language talk will be moderated by former American Institute in Taiwan director and current professor at National Taiwan University’s International College William Stanton.
FILLING THE VACUUM
Though the “Taiwan issue” will be broached at the congress that begins tomorrow at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People and includes 2,287 delegates, other issues will loom larger at the once-in-five years conclave. Burns says the party’s agenda will focus on three major areas: reforming state-owned enterprises, improving security and emphasizing its commitment to globalization.
Cyber, social and national security will be on top of the agenda.
“This involves everything from fighting domestic terrorism to policing the Internet and ensuring that groups, especially professionals such as lawyers, do not threaten stability. Internationally, China needs to protect its interests, including investments, energy supplies and people from harm,” he says.
Burns says China will reemphasize its commitment to globalization, international trade relationships and trade regimes such as the WTO, while deepening links with South and West Asia, East Africa and Europe through its “One Belt, One Road” initiative, which involves pushing for a multilateral world and integrating neighboring states into a China-centric economic system. He adds that China hopes to provide technology and infrastructure — ports, rail — in strategic areas that will be conducive to growth at home.
And with the administration of US President Donald Trump turning inward, China has the opportunity to play a leading role in a more globalized world, particularly in business and trade, the environment and security, he says.
“Trump’s policies have left a vacuum that China can fill, partnering (say, with the EU) in climate change and the environment and trade,” he says, adding that there is plenty of room to maneuver as the current US administration pursues “a mercantilist inward looking, isolationist policy.”
With regards to state-owned enterprises, Burns says the Chinese public will be given the opportunity to buy minority stakes so as to improve their performance, while maintaining control over them. Though this may raise capital for these enterprises, he adds, it is unlikely to make them more competitive because state monopolies are strategic for the party maintaining its grip on power.
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Burns expresses one area of concern: censorship.
“This is a worrying development,” he says. “China needs to be subtler as it builds soft power, and offer the world a vision of the future that is both credible and one that they wish to embrace,” he says.
Burns says that the way the party handled the China Quarterly Cambridge University Press fiasco was “ham-fisted and underscored the party’s perception that it is very vulnerable.”
He adds, “The Chinese-language version of these articles apparently offered a convincing counter-narrative to the people of China that the party could not tolerate. We will see continuing efforts by the CCP to manage its image both at home and abroad.”
Does a crackdown on press and academic freedoms form part of a larger push by 64-year-old Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) to seek a third term (they are bound by two terms)? Burns isn’t bullish. He suggests that Chen Miner (陳敏爾), a Xi protege who recently became the party boss of megapolis Chongqing, may be a successor if he is promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee.
“[Chen] is young enough to fit the position and apparently loyal enough to be plucked from the Central Committee directly into such a role,” Burns says.
Burns adds that Xi staying on for another term wouldn’t bode well for China’s institutions.
“Xi staying on for a third term will indicate the weakness of China’s political institutions and the norms for succession that have been built,” he says. “It will say to the world that only a single individual is capable of leading China.”
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