Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is taking extreme measures again, announcing his decision to end the Visiting Forces Agreement with the US, which has been in place for 21 years.
The agreement allows for a unilateral notice to end the pact, which then ceases after 180 days. Since it is the cornerstone of Philippine-US military cooperation, the decision is a direct challenge to the White House.
The abolition would void two other agreements between the nations: the Mutual Defense Treaty and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. It is difficult to predict the effect of this decision on future relations, but Duterte’s blunt move could give Taiwan an edge.
Since his 2016 election, Duterte, who has some Chinese ancestry, has been very China-friendly. On Oct. 7 that year, he notified the US that he would suspend joint patrols in the South China Sea, and he also terminated annual joint military exercises.
The US Congress has since made successive Taiwan-friendly moves, such as US President Donald Trump receiving a congratulatory phone call from President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) following his election victory and the inclusion of Taiwan in the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy through the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018.
Last year, the former Coordination Council for North American Affairs was renamed the Taiwan Council for US Affairs, and a US-Taiwan deal confirmed the sale of F-16V fighters to Taiwan.
Taiwan-US relations have indeed improved thanks to Duterte. The US military patrols in the Taiwan Strait last month also prove the US’ determination to protect Taiwan.
It is rather curious that the Philippines has been a “good neighbor” for the past 400 years. Japan ruled Taiwan for 50 years, and China has always claimed it, and its saber rattling and threats continue unabated. The Philippines alone does not threaten Taiwan.
During World War II, US Army general Douglas MacArthur was so eager to regain the Philippines that he changed the Allies’ military plan for attacking Japan by striking directly at Taiwan first, thus allowing Taiwan to avoid the catastrophe of becoming a battlefield.
As the first island chain becomes more and more important for the US’ and Japan’s security, while the US and China compete for hegemony, the Philippines’ pro-China attitude highlights Taiwan’s key role in the chain. The Philippines is, indeed, a “good neighbor” — thanks, Duterte.
Taiwanese might wonder if the situation would turn against them if the next president of the Philippines is pro-US.
The Philippines has always been pro-Western, so the possibility of a policy U-turn is high, but even so, by then Taiwan-US relations might have progressed to an alliance, or perhaps a quasi-alliance.
The Philippines’ pro-US stance would then only strengthen the defensibility of the first island chain, which is still beneficial to Taiwan’s security.
In other words, the situation would benefit Taiwan whether the Philippines are pro-US or anti-US.
This is not to say that Taiwan-Philippines relations are unimportant. The Philippines and Japan both have populations of more than 100 million with territory several times larger than Taiwan’s.
The Philippine’s recent travel ban on Taiwan to prevent the spread of COVID-19 was eventually lifted following negotiations, and the crisis was successfully resolved, which only goes to show that the Philippines is not a bad neighbor.
Huang Tien-lin is a former advisory member of the National Security Council and a national policy adviser to the president.
Translated by Lin Lee-kai
The past few months have seen tremendous strides in India’s journey to develop a vibrant semiconductor and electronics ecosystem. The nation’s established prowess in information technology (IT) has earned it much-needed revenue and prestige across the globe. Now, through the convergence of engineering talent, supportive government policies, an expanding market and technologically adaptive entrepreneurship, India is striving to become part of global electronics and semiconductor supply chains. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Vision of “Make in India” and “Design in India” has been the guiding force behind the government’s incentive schemes that span skilling, design, fabrication, assembly, testing and packaging, and
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
As former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wrapped up his visit to the People’s Republic of China, he received his share of attention. Certainly, the trip must be seen within the full context of Ma’s life, that is, his eight-year presidency, the Sunflower movement and his failed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, as well as his eight years as Taipei mayor with its posturing, accusations of money laundering, and ups and downs. Through all that, basic questions stand out: “What drives Ma? What is his end game?” Having observed and commented on Ma for decades, it is all ironically reminiscent of former US president Harry