Taiwan took a major step in its democratic development by holding peaceful and orderly elections on Saturday.
The Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) dramatic resurgence by retaking the presidency, while securing its first-ever majority in the Legislative Yuan, shows that the multi-party system is making progress in Taiwan.
The third transition of presidential power in the past 16 years brings to mind Harvard University academic Samuel Huntington’s view that political parties taking turns in assuming power is a strong indication of a mature democracy.
Still, a two-party structure depends on the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) ability to recover from its fall from power. The old establishment party badly needs to find a way to attract young people into its ranks.
KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) could lead such an effort, even though the party’s decision to force him to run for a lost cause damaged his reputation. Another challenge for the KMT is to try to win back the deep-blue faction, which delivered People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) 12 percent of the vote.
The DPP also has some issues to resolve. President-elect Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is not among the party’s founders, having joined in the early 2000s. It remains to be seen if she can rally the party behind her through Cabinet appointments, while striking an alliance with the New Power Party, which gained [6.1] percent of the vote in its first electoral foray.
Tsai faces a number of challenges as she looks ahead to her tenure as the nation’s leader.
First, she needs to use the four-month period before her inauguration on May 20 to present a coherent strategy for reviving the nation’s lagging economy. Just as important, Tsai needs to continue to reach out to China as far as her party permits, since a vindictive Beijing would complicate all her policy goals, including reviving the economy.
She needs to anticipate losing some of Taiwan’s more than 20 diplomatic partners, since several of them have already shown a desire to move their embassies across the Taiwan Strait. The DPP should not obsess over losing allies in Africa, Central America and the Pacific, as partnerships with the US, Europe, Japan and other Asian nations are much more important.
Washington showed more restraint this time around than in 2012, when the White House publicized its doubts about Tsai’s ability to manage cross-strait ties. Sending former US deputy secretary of state Bill Burns to Taipei to meet with Tsai is a promising first step.
However, Tsai should anticipate Beijing privately conveying its doubts to Washington about the DPP’s ability to manage cross-strait relations.
The US’ domestic political scene further complicates this issue. There is to be a new administration in January next year and whoever replaces US President Barack Obama is likely to want to preserve amiable relations with China.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is likely to seek to exploit this as he formulates his own policy toward the Tsai government. Even if the next US president comes into office having expressed an intention to be tougher on China, the economic and political realities ensure that they would continue to seek friendly relations with Beijing.
A slowing Chinese economy could make Xi even more inclined to make Taiwan a public issue. Recent evidence suggests the hardline leader is quick to play on the Chinese public’s penchant for nationalist, even xenophobic, emotions when he sees this as a way to distract them from domestic travails.
While this is a moment for Tsai to savor her victory, major challenges lie ahead.
Stephen Young is a former director of the American Institute in Taiwan.
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