After Typhoon Soudelor swept through the nation last month, I had the opportunity to chat with a group of military personnel who were cleaning up the aftermath. From them, I learned that the military’s shortage of soldiers is so serious that it has become a secret that cannot be spoken of. The public might find it difficult to believe that the military is faced with the embarrassment of no longer being able to deploy a large number of troops.
What is the cause of this shortfall? Could it be a result of Taiwan’s low birthrate? The impact of the declining birthrate has not yet made itself strongly felt, so where else could the problem lie? An analysis of the data will provide us with the answer.
There are now 215,000 people in the nation’s armed forces. If we deduct the number of irregular staff necessary for maintaining operations, the number of regular staff is 196,000. With the goal of a ratio of actual strength to authorized strength of between 87 and 90 percent, the minimum number of military personnel in peacetime should be between 170,000 and 175,000.
Since the Ministry of National Defense has set its goal for the number of volunteer soldiers for this year at more than 140,000, there is a shortfall of about 35,400 people from the original goal of about 176,000 people. The ministry estimates that the number of volunteer soldiers for next year will be 149,000, leaving a shortfall of between 20,000 and 27,000 people.
Why does the minister not recruit enough volunteer soldiers to fill all the posts? The answer is quite simple. The military has reached the upper limit for its personnel costs, which have already expanded from NT$116.1 billion (US$3.55 billion) for 460,000 people in 1996 to NT$150.4 billion for 215,000 people last year. Meanwhile, personnel costs as a percentage of the military budget have surged sharply from 38.12 percent to 49.17 percent between 2008 and last year. Since it is unable to increase the budget, the ministry’s personnel costs are squeezing out military investment and operation costs.
Since it is difficult for the ministry to perform well when it is understaffed, recruiting more personnel seems to be necessary. However, how many more people should be recruited? According to the military’s estimates, it should be able to meet the required number by recruiting 23,100 more people next year.
The problem is that the minimum monthly salary for a volunteer soldier is NT$33,625. Based on a 13.5-month annual salary — which includes a 12-month base salary and an annual bonus of 1.5 months’ pay — the ministry’s personnel costs would increase by NT$10.5 billion next year if it were to recruit that many more people. At this rate, personnel costs as a percentage of the defense budget would exceed 50 percent.
However, the monthly wage for a conscript is NT$6,070. Based on a 13.5-month annual salary, the ministry’s personnel costs would only increase by NT$1.93 billion if it were to recruit 23,100 conscripts next year.
Therefore, recruiting 23,100 conscripts instead of volunteers would save the ministry NT$8.6 billion. The military is good at math, as it tries to save money by recruiting conscripts. Its attitude is really an eye-opener, as it only cares about reaching the budget goal while breaking its own promise.
We cannot exclude the possibility that the reason the government extended conscription for one year was to save money, and this is not likely to be the last extension, because no one can guarantee that there will not be a next time.
Lin Hon-chan is a military journalist and a lecturer in the Department of Radio and Television at National Taiwan University of Arts.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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