After more than a year of debate between the ruling and opposition parties, more Taiwanese oppose the cross-strait service trade agreement than support it. Even among those who support it, there are significant differences of opinion between pan-blue and pan-green camp supporters.
Of particular note is that a majority believe the agreement will have a more negative than positive impact on the nation’s economic and political interests. So, how should the government assuage public concerns and get the agreement passed through the legislature?
First, because the government overstated the benefits of the Economic Framework Trade Agreement (ECFA) in the past and because its assessments of the agreement’s benefits are extremely modest, with estimates showing that it will increase GDP by a mere 0.025 to 0.034 percent, Taiwanese doubt the promises that have been made.
Second, even if the economic benefits of the agreement outweigh its negative effects, because Taiwanese are not sure how they will fare in the face of tough competition from China, a general anxiety is prevalent.
Third, the political ramifications of the agreement are hard to evaluate, making it a guessing game.
To solve these doubts and worries, and further facilitate cross-strait cooperation and integration, the following are three recommendations for Taipei and Beijing to consider.
First, Taiwan should use Kinmen as a free economic pilot zone to promote the free flow of global products, services, capital, personnel and information. Also, if the two nations could establish a joint commission for this, they could use Kinmen as a testing ground for cross-strait economic liberalization and integration, and allow the benefits of cross-strait economic integration to be fully displayed. Also, Kinmen could be used to assess the political impact of cross-strait economic integration and allow Taipei to consider whether it is feasible to allow integration plans to be carried out on Taiwan proper.
Second, China should think about Taiwan participating in East Asian economic integration from the standpoint of mutual benefit and reciprocity, as this would increase support among Taiwanese for broadening the scope of cross-strait economic liberalization.
China should actively support Taiwan’s participation in the negotiations for the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and allow Taiwan to take part in negotiations with the other potential member nations so that by the time the potential members have signed the partnership, Taiwan can also take part in it. In addition to this, China should support Taiwan participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Because the partnership is an economic integration agreement that involves high levels of liberalization, China will have a tough time in the short term adjusting the structure of its economy to suit the agreement, and if Taiwan was to first participate, it could provide Chinese businesses with a platform for entering the international market, which will result in a win-win situation.
Third, a referendum should be used to solve the debates going on within Taiwan over the cross-strait service trade agreement. Many opinion polls from the past show that pan-blue and pan-green camp supporters have vastly differing opinions when it comes to the agreement, which has seen the two sides locked in fierce opposition over the issue of cross-strait economic integration. However, according to an opinion poll conducted by TVBS in March, 61 percent of respondents support the idea of using a referendum to make a final decision on the agreement, with only 31 percent against the idea.
The only way to make both camps accept the final decision on the agreement is to use a democratic procedure. This would also help solve the problems of opposition and deadlock that are going on in the legislature.
Tung Chen-yuan is a professor at National Chengchi University’s Graduate Institute of Development Studies.
Translated by Drew Cameron
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