The government’s latest statistics confirmed that the nation’s economic activity in the third quarter grew at its slowest pace in two years and posted the first quarter-on-quarter contraction since the first quarter of 2009. Meanwhile, the government revised downward its GDP growth forecast for this year for the fourth time in six months and lowered the forecast for next year on rising global uncertainties.
According to the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics’ (DGBAS) advance third-quarter GDP data released on Thursday, the economy expanded 3.42 percent from a year earlier, slightly higher than the 3.37 percent the statistics bureau’s Oct. 31 estimate. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, third-quarter GDP shrank 0.15 percent from the previous quarter, in contrast with the 0.28 percent contraction predicted earlier.
For this quarter, the DGBAS expects the economy to grow 3.69 percent year-on-year, down from 4.71 percent predicted on Oct. 31. The statistics bureau forecast the economy would expand 4.51 percent this year, versus its previous estimate of 4.56 percent, and predicted 4.19 percent growth next year, down from its previous estimate of 4.38 percent.
The government’s GDP growth revisions reflect Taiwan’s strong dependence on exports and the nation’s sensitivity to global macroeconomic trends. Other economic data released last week provided more bad news for the nation’s economic prospects.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) on Wednesday said industrial production increased 1.41 percent year-on-year last month, from a 1.84 percent rise in September.
Export order data released on Monday showed demand for Taiwan’s overseas shipments over the next one to three months had slowed to single-digit growth rates for three consecutive months. The MOEA data showed export orders rose 4.38 percent year-on-year last month to US$37.21 billion, with demand from China and the US expanding, while demand from Europe and Japan slowed.
Nonetheless, the latest unemployment figure released on Tuesday caught many people by surprise, as it was the third time in 10 years that October’s rate was higher than September’s, implying the domestic labor market is facing growing headwinds in the face of more workers taking involuntary furloughs. The jobless rate was 4.30 percent last month, versus 4.28 percent in September, according to DGBAS data.
With overseas trade comprising 70 percent of the nation’s economic output, external uncertainties have inevitably impacted on domestic manufacturers. This is likely to trigger a ripple effect into private consumption and investment in the months ahead.
Against this backdrop, the government said on Thursday it was proposing new economic stimulus plans to shore up consumer and investor confidence as the stock market plunged 6.21 percent last week, the fourth week of losses and the biggest drop since late September. Local media reports say the stimulus measures expected to be announced by the government on Wednesday will focus on boosting exports, expanding private consumption and investment, stabilizing financial markets, increasing domestic employment and maintaining low inflation.
Having stimulus plans ready is one thing, but making the plans work is another. As officials now realize the growing importance of attracting private investment to stimulate economic activity amid faltering exports, they must do all they can to fix any planning or legal obstacles to major investments in infrastructure, manufacturing and services industries.
However, consumers are mostly ignoring government data about GDP and exports, focusing instead on job uncertainty and disposable income, as well as high housing prices and the widening wealth gap. Frustration with these issues will undercut consumers’ confidence in the government’s stimulus plans and further weaken the economic outlook.
We are used to hearing that whenever something happens, it means Taiwan is about to fall to China. Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) cannot change the color of his socks without China experts claiming it means an invasion is imminent. So, it is no surprise that what happened in Venezuela over the weekend triggered the knee-jerk reaction of saying that Taiwan is next. That is not an opinion on whether US President Donald Trump was right to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro the way he did or if it is good for Venezuela and the world. There are other, more qualified
This should be the year in which the democracies, especially those in East Asia, lose their fear of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) “one China principle” plus its nuclear “Cognitive Warfare” coercion strategies, all designed to achieve hegemony without fighting. For 2025, stoking regional and global fear was a major goal for the CCP and its People’s Liberation Army (PLA), following on Mao Zedong’s (毛澤東) Little Red Book admonition, “We must be ruthless to our enemies; we must overpower and annihilate them.” But on Dec. 17, 2025, the Trump Administration demonstrated direct defiance of CCP terror with its record US$11.1 billion arms
The immediate response in Taiwan to the extraction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the US over the weekend was to say that it was an example of violence by a major power against a smaller nation and that, as such, it gave Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) carte blanche to invade Taiwan. That assessment is vastly oversimplistic and, on more sober reflection, likely incorrect. Generally speaking, there are three basic interpretations from commentators in Taiwan. The first is that the US is no longer interested in what is happening beyond its own backyard, and no longer preoccupied with regions in other
As technological change sweeps across the world, the focus of education has undergone an inevitable shift toward artificial intelligence (AI) and digital learning. However, the HundrED Global Collection 2026 report has a message that Taiwanese society and education policymakers would do well to reflect on. In the age of AI, the scarcest resource in education is not advanced computing power, but people; and the most urgent global educational crisis is not technological backwardness, but teacher well-being and retention. Covering 52 countries, the report from HundrED, a Finnish nonprofit that reviews and compiles innovative solutions in education from around the world, highlights a
RSS