The long-awaited annual US Department of Defense report Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, 2010, was finally released last week. Although an August publication means it is several months late, the report makes up for its tardiness by providing China analysts with a very useful array of official information regarding the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). It also presents an extensive discussion on China’s security situation.
This year’s report includes a survey of China’s relations with its neighbors, outstanding territorial disputes and an examination of Beijing’s energy strategy. The report also discusses domestic forces such as demographics and domestic political pressures, that are likely to focus China’s leaders inward rather than outward.
However, the most interesting thing about the report is what it leaves unsaid. It is replete with information that should alarm anyone concerned about Taiwan’s diplomatic space and ability to defend itself, yet the obvious strategic conclusions are left to readers to draw for themselves.
The main focus of the report remains military considerations. The PLA has enjoyed annual double-digit increases in the defense budget for two decades. Even this year’s reduced increase still boosted spending by nearly 8 percent. This steady growth in resources reflects China’s burgeoning economic power and has funded substantial improvements in the PLA’s capabilities.
Many of these developments are longstanding, as the PLA has had an interest in denying the US the ability to operate freely in the Western Pacific for at least the past decade. Thus, while there are few surprises in terms of new programs outlined, there is also little evidence that China is giving up a broad-based push to secure its surrounding seas, skies and space.
Moreover, the available information paints a picture of a PLA intent on achieving an anti-access, area-denial capacity that will greatly limit US commanders’ options — a problem for US operations anywhere in Asia, but particularly in any scenario involving US defense of Taiwan.
One of the major PLA advances highlighted in this year’s report includes the development of anti-ship ballistic missiles, which is repeatedly mentioned. If the PLA succeeds in developing such a weapon, it would significantly raise the stakes of deploying aircraft carriers within striking range of China.
The report also makes it clear that the PLA has enhanced its capabilities in the space and cyber realms, including an array of new satellites, as well as computer network attack and exploitation capabilities.
Another area of interest is Chinese joint operations. This year’s report includes an extensive discussion of Beijing’s efforts to build synergies between forces fighting in the air, on land, at sea, in outer space and in cyberspace.
The report also examines aspects of China’s military industrial complex, including references to civil-military integration, wherein the military exploits China’s “rapidly expanding civilian economy and science and technology sectors, particularly elements with access to foreign technology.”
Disappointingly, despite reviewing improvements in PLA capability, the report broadly failed to speculate as to how they might be deployed.
In particular, despite being perhaps the most extensive discussion of the PLA and China’s security situation available to the public, the report arguably underplays the threat to Taiwan.
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