In an economic downturn, there is an expression economists use to illustrate the difference between a depression and recession: A recession is when your neighbor loses his job, while a depression is when you lose your job.
This might be appropriate in gauging how well the local economy has rebounded after bottoming out, especially when economic indicators are sending mixed signals and a “jobless recovery” is looming.
Because of a low base last year, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) rated the nation’s economic climate as “yellow-red” this month for the first time in 25 months, which suggests the domestic economy might soon overheat. The indicator jumped 11 points from last month to 37 — the highest in five-and-a-half years.
At the same time, the nation’s consumer confidence index edged up to a 20-month high as public sentiment toward equity investment showed strong signs of improvement.
This all seems to point to good news to come.
However, as of the end of last month, 645,000 workers were still out of a job, or an unemployment rate of 5.86 percent. This did not include part-time workers, whose job security is questionable.
Less encouraging is that in the near future, a mismatch in the nation’s supply and demand for workers could emerge, as CEPD chairman Tsai Hsun-hsiung (蔡勳雄) has warned.
The mismatch suggests two extremes: One is that the nation’s top-tier managerial talent may be insufficient or unfit to meet the demand for such employees, and the other is that there will be an excess of low-end jobs with a thinner paycheck for which local job seekers may be overqualified and which they will be reluctant to take up, according to Tsai.
His conclusion was that while the nation could still experience an economic recovery, it would be accompanied by a surging jobless rate: the so-called jobless recovery.
If unemployment keeps rising, how would it be possible to spur domestic consumption — which makes up a smaller chunk of the local economy than exports — to back up a solid recovery?
The employment mismatch sends an even louder warning to local workers, because the gap will most likely be filled by expatriate workers, especially from Hong Kong, China and Vietnam.
A growing jobless rate may be inevitable and understandable as the local economy migrates from a manufacturing-oriented system to a more service-based economy, but what has the government done to address the mismatch and worsening unemployment problem?
The government seems to have tied its hopes to closer ties with China, claiming that the inking of an economic accord with China would generate more jobs in Taiwan. However, the government has refrained from detailing what kind of job opportunities would be created.
Perhaps the best way of testing claims that the economy is heating up is to check if your job is secure and promises reasonable pay growth.
Chinese actor Alan Yu (于朦朧) died after allegedly falling from a building in Beijing on Sept. 11. The actor’s mysterious death was tightly censored on Chinese social media, with discussions and doubts about the incident quickly erased. Even Hong Kong artist Daniel Chan’s (陳曉東) post questioning the truth about the case was automatically deleted, sparking concern among overseas Chinese-speaking communities about the dark culture and severe censorship in China’s entertainment industry. Yu had been under house arrest for days, and forced to drink with the rich and powerful before he died, reports said. He lost his life in this vicious
A recent trio of opinion articles in this newspaper reflects the growing anxiety surrounding Washington’s reported request for Taiwan to shift up to 50 percent of its semiconductor production abroad — a process likely to take 10 years, even under the most serious and coordinated effort. Simon H. Tang (湯先鈍) issued a sharp warning (“US trade threatens silicon shield,” Oct. 4, page 8), calling the move a threat to Taiwan’s “silicon shield,” which he argues deters aggression by making Taiwan indispensable. On the same day, Hsiao Hsi-huei (蕭錫惠) (“Responding to US semiconductor policy shift,” Oct. 4, page 8) focused on
George Santayana wrote: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” This article will help readers avoid repeating mistakes by examining four examples from the civil war between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) forces and the Republic of China (ROC) forces that involved two city sieges and two island invasions. The city sieges compared are Changchun (May to October 1948) and Beiping (November 1948 to January 1949, renamed Beijing after its capture), and attempts to invade Kinmen (October 1949) and Hainan (April 1950). Comparing and contrasting these examples, we can learn how Taiwan may prevent a war with
In South Korea, the medical cosmetic industry is fiercely competitive and prices are low, attracting beauty enthusiasts from Taiwan. However, basic medical risks are often overlooked. While sharing a meal with friends recently, I heard one mention that his daughter would be going to South Korea for a cosmetic skincare procedure. I felt a twinge of unease at the time, but seeing as it was just a casual conversation among friends, I simply reminded him to prioritize safety. I never thought that, not long after, I would actually encounter a patient in my clinic with a similar situation. She had
RSS