In an economic downturn, there is an expression economists use to illustrate the difference between a depression and recession: A recession is when your neighbor loses his job, while a depression is when you lose your job.
This might be appropriate in gauging how well the local economy has rebounded after bottoming out, especially when economic indicators are sending mixed signals and a “jobless recovery” is looming.
Because of a low base last year, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) rated the nation’s economic climate as “yellow-red” this month for the first time in 25 months, which suggests the domestic economy might soon overheat. The indicator jumped 11 points from last month to 37 — the highest in five-and-a-half years.
At the same time, the nation’s consumer confidence index edged up to a 20-month high as public sentiment toward equity investment showed strong signs of improvement.
This all seems to point to good news to come.
However, as of the end of last month, 645,000 workers were still out of a job, or an unemployment rate of 5.86 percent. This did not include part-time workers, whose job security is questionable.
Less encouraging is that in the near future, a mismatch in the nation’s supply and demand for workers could emerge, as CEPD chairman Tsai Hsun-hsiung (蔡勳雄) has warned.
The mismatch suggests two extremes: One is that the nation’s top-tier managerial talent may be insufficient or unfit to meet the demand for such employees, and the other is that there will be an excess of low-end jobs with a thinner paycheck for which local job seekers may be overqualified and which they will be reluctant to take up, according to Tsai.
His conclusion was that while the nation could still experience an economic recovery, it would be accompanied by a surging jobless rate: the so-called jobless recovery.
If unemployment keeps rising, how would it be possible to spur domestic consumption — which makes up a smaller chunk of the local economy than exports — to back up a solid recovery?
The employment mismatch sends an even louder warning to local workers, because the gap will most likely be filled by expatriate workers, especially from Hong Kong, China and Vietnam.
A growing jobless rate may be inevitable and understandable as the local economy migrates from a manufacturing-oriented system to a more service-based economy, but what has the government done to address the mismatch and worsening unemployment problem?
The government seems to have tied its hopes to closer ties with China, claiming that the inking of an economic accord with China would generate more jobs in Taiwan. However, the government has refrained from detailing what kind of job opportunities would be created.
Perhaps the best way of testing claims that the economy is heating up is to check if your job is secure and promises reasonable pay growth.
On Sunday, 13 new urgent care centers (UCC) officially began operations across the six special municipalities. The purpose of the centers — which are open from 8am to midnight on Sundays and national holidays — is to reduce congestion in hospital emergency rooms, especially during the nine-day Lunar New Year holiday next year. It remains to be seen how effective these centers would be. For one, it is difficult for people to judge for themselves whether their condition warrants visiting a major hospital or a UCC — long-term public education and health promotions are necessary. Second, many emergency departments acknowledge
US President Donald Trump’s seemingly throwaway “Taiwan is Taiwan” statement has been appearing in headlines all over the media. Although it appears to have been made in passing, the comment nevertheless reveals something about Trump’s views and his understanding of Taiwan’s situation. In line with the Taiwan Relations Act, the US and Taiwan enjoy unofficial, but close economic, cultural and national defense ties. They lack official diplomatic relations, but maintain a partnership based on shared democratic values and strategic alignment. Excluding China, Taiwan maintains a level of diplomatic relations, official or otherwise, with many nations worldwide. It can be said that
Victory in conflict requires mastery of two “balances”: First, the balance of power, and second, the balance of error, or making sure that you do not make the most mistakes, thus helping your enemy’s victory. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has made a decisive and potentially fatal error by making an enemy of the Jewish Nation, centered today in the State of Israel but historically one of the great civilizations extending back at least 3,000 years. Mind you, no Israeli leader has ever publicly declared that “China is our enemy,” but on October 28, 2025, self-described Chinese People’s Armed Police (PAP) propaganda
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) made the astonishing assertion during an interview with Germany’s Deutsche Welle, published on Friday last week, that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not a dictator. She also essentially absolved Putin of blame for initiating the war in Ukraine. Commentators have since listed the reasons that Cheng’s assertion was not only absurd, but bordered on dangerous. Her claim is certainly absurd to the extent that there is no need to discuss the substance of it: It would be far more useful to assess what drove her to make the point and stick so
RSS