As predicted by public opinion polls, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won a major victory in the Japanese general election on Sunday, forcing the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to concede power.
The DPJ, which already held the biggest number of seats in the Diet’s upper house — the House of Councilors — has now won more than half the seats in the House of Representatives, so there will be no repeat of the situation in 1993 to 1994, when eight small parties formed a coalition government under former prime minister Morihiro Hosakawa. This is the first time that parties opposed to the LDP have held a majority of seats in both houses, marking a full transfer of power.
Many members of the DPJ were once in the LDP, including former DPJ president Ichiro Ozawa, who served in the key position of chief secretary of the LDP in the early 1990s. There are many others, however, who are former members of left-wing parties, so the public expects the DPJ’s policies to be significantly different from those of the LDP.
This is confirmed by the content of the DPJ’s election manifesto. Key differences lie in the two parties’ interpretation of the US-Japan alliance, their views of Japan’s role and duties in international affairs, the US military presence in Okinawa and so on. Observers are waiting to see how the incoming DPJ government will handle these issues. Next year marks the 50th anniversary of the US-Japan alliance. It is to be expected that the government will make a significant statement on the direction of the alliance, and its attitude will influence the overall Asia-Pacific security system. For this reason, everyone is paying attention to the DPJ’s views on Asia-Pacific security issues.
The 1995 review of the US-Japanese alliance coincided with the premiership of Tomiichi Murayama of the Socialist Party, but this did not result in a weakening of the alliance. On the contrary, it led to an affirmation of the alliance in the form of the 1996 US-Japan Joint Declaration on Security, and laid the basis for the 1998 revised Guidelines for US-Japan Defense Cooperation. Judging by this precedent, the DPJ’s accession to power does not necessarily mean that the alliance between the two countries will weaken. Still, Taiwan should give the matter careful attention. US military equipment and personnel from Okinawa helped Taiwan in the aftermath of Typhoon Morakot, highlighting the fact that the US-Japan alliance is not just a safeguard for security in the Taiwan Strait, but can also play an important role in dealing with natural disasters and other emergencies.
Four years ago, under the continuing whirlwind of support for then-prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, the LDP took nearly 300 seats in the House of Representatives, leaving the DPJ with so few seats that it could not even delay bills. Who would have thought that this year’s election would see the DPJ surging beyond 300 seats? Such is the effect of the winner-takes-all single-member constituency system, under which a party winning a plurality or small majority of votes can gain a great majority of seats.
The DPJ fought its way back from having just 112 seats four years ago to 308 now by stressing its policies of reform and rejuvenation. It used the multi-seat constituency electoral system for the House of Councilors to consolidate its power base there and then used the single-member constituency system to launch an all-out counterattack in the House of Representatives election. It is a strategy that opposition parties would do well to study. Rather than complain about the existing system, it is better to think about how to exploit the potential it offers. If Taiwan’s opposition Democratic Progressive Party can learn the lesson, it may be victorious once more.
Lai I-chung is an executive committee member of Taiwan Thinktank.
TRANSLATED BY JULIAN CLEGG
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