US administrations typically suffer temporary loss of international influence as their time in office draws to a close. But rarely has Washington’s global prestige and leverage fallen so low as in the dog days of US President George W. Bush’s eight-year reign. This debilitation is a source of concern for the US’ friends — and a dangerous opportunity for its enemies, who hope such weakness can be both exploited and made permanent.
The US-triggered economic crisis has reinforced hostile perceptions of US vulnerability.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gleefully invited Iranians to listen to the sound of global power crashing to the ground.
ILLUSTRATION: MOUNTAIN PEOPLE
Ali Akbar Nateq-Nuri, senior adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told a prayer meeting that Bush’s reported refusal to back an Israeli military strike on Iran was another sign of failing US will.
Nateq-Nuri claimed Washington’s “retreat” showed US and European support for Israel was diminishing. Seen from Washington, this interpretation looks patently absurd. Yet the fact that a top figure in Tehran apparently believes a future attempt to destroy Israel would meet with reduced resistance from the Western powers is deeply worrying.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is also aggressively exploiting Bush’s lame duck troubles in his bid to reassert Moscow’s great power status. Analysts suggest Russia’s invasion of Georgia in August was based in part on calculations, since vindicated, that Bush would be unwilling or unable to react forcefully.
Now Putin appears to be threatening Ukraine, accusing Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko of sending weapons and military personnel to help Georgia.
“When people and military systems are used to kill Russian soldiers, it’s a crime,” Putin said last week.
US Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain is warning that Putin is encouraging the ethnic Russian population of Ukraine’s Crimea region to break with Kiev. But at present the US is mostly a spectator.
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev is meanwhile busily rubbing American noses in the financial dirt — and pointing to long-term strategic consequences of the crisis.
“The times when one economy and one country dominated are gone for good,” Medvedev said.
To American ears his words uncomfortably echoed German Finance Minister Peer Steinbruck, an ostensible ally, who said “the US will lose its superpower status in the world financial system.”
Americans have been reminded that schadenfreude is, after all, a German word.
Some countries are seeking shorter-term advantage from US troubles. North Korea may be counting on a new, possibly Democratic, administration to gain a more favorable nuclear disarmament deal. Similar considerations have helped freeze the Middle East peace process.
But uncertainty over the US’ — and its allies’ — will to win in Afghanistan, and over how quickly the US will get out of Iraq, is affecting longer-term political calculations in Islamabad, Kabul and Baghdad. It may also be encouraging the Taliban and al-Qaeda in their escalating campaigns of violence. They read the newspapers and the Internet, too. And with the US’ purse strings tightly stretched, they must wonder whether a new administration can afford the tens of billions of dollars needed to pursue two unpopular wars.
In the US’ backyard, ideological enemies such as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez are hoping for a permanent shift in power in a region historically dominated by the US.
“The world will never be the same after this crisis,” Chavez said during a visit to Brazil. “We are decoupling from the wagon of death.”
His host, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, complained bitterly that Washington spent years telling Latin America how to get its economic house in order — and then ignored its own advice.
Yet despite all the weaknesses, it would be foolish to start writing obituaries for US power.
Former Bosnian war peacemaker Richard Holbrooke, writing in the journal Foreign Affairs, suggested that the US’ ambition remains undiminished. The next president, said Holbrooke, who is tipped as a possible secretary of state in an Obama administration, would also inherit “a nation that is still the most powerful in the world — a nation rich with the continued promise of its dynamic and increasingly diverse population, a nation that could, and must, again inspire, mobilize and lead the world.”
Saudi Arabian largesse is flooding Egypt’s cultural scene, but the reception is mixed. Some welcome new “cooperation” between two regional powerhouses, while others fear a hostile takeover by Riyadh. In Cairo, historically the cultural capital of the Arab world, Egyptian Minister of Culture Nevine al-Kilany recently hosted Saudi Arabian General Entertainment Authority chairman Turki al-Sheikh. The deep-pocketed al-Sheikh has emerged as a Medici-like patron for Egypt’s cultural elite, courted by Cairo’s top talent to produce a slew of forthcoming films. A new three-way agreement between al-Sheikh, Kilany and United Media Services — a multi-media conglomerate linked to state intelligence that owns much of
The US and other countries should take concrete steps to confront the threats from Beijing to avoid war, US Representative Mario Diaz-Balart said in an interview with Voice of America on March 13. The US should use “every diplomatic economic tool at our disposal to treat China as what it is... to avoid war,” Diaz-Balart said. Giving an example of what the US could do, he said that it has to be more aggressive in its military sales to Taiwan. Actions by cross-party US lawmakers in the past few years such as meeting with Taiwanese officials in Washington and Taipei, and
Denmark’s “one China” policy more and more resembles Beijing’s “one China” principle. At least, this is how things appear. In recent interactions with the Danish state, such as applying for residency permits, a Taiwanese’s nationality would be listed as “China.” That designation occurs for a Taiwanese student coming to Denmark or a Danish citizen arriving in Denmark with, for example, their Taiwanese partner. Details of this were published on Sunday in an article in the Danish daily Berlingske written by Alexander Sjoberg and Tobias Reinwald. The pretext for this new practice is that Denmark does not recognize Taiwan as a state under
The Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan has no official diplomatic allies in the EU. With the exception of the Vatican, it has no official allies in Europe at all. This does not prevent the ROC — Taiwan — from having close relations with EU member states and other European countries. The exact nature of the relationship does bear revisiting, if only to clarify what is a very complicated and sensitive idea, the details of which leave considerable room for misunderstanding, misrepresentation and disagreement. Only this week, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) received members of the European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations