Not long after it came to power, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) administration said it would convene a national fisheries conference and abandon the previous government’s conservative approach to handling fisheries issues by conducting cross-strait consultations on fishing zone agreements, protection of fishermen and catch quotas.
There may be hope that many of the problems that have troubled Taiwanese fishermen for a long time — the smuggling of large volumes of Chinese fishery products to the domestic market, which causes prices to drop; Chinese fishing boats illegally entering Taiwanese waters and destroying fishery resources; the uneven skills of Chinese fishery workers causing operational and management problems; and the theft of domestically cultivated breeds by Chinese businesspeople — can be resolved.
From a realistic perspective, however, the fishery industries on both sides of the Taiwan Strait will remain in competition with the international market. As Taiwan has a high cost disadvantage, it will take wisdom to make the best of the situation.
In his Art of War, Sun Tzu (孫子) says: “If you know both yourself and your enemy, you need not fear the results of a hundred battles. With more calculations, one can win; with less, one cannot.”
The Chess Classics 13 also says: “If you know your own defects and learn from your enemy’s advantages, you will win.”
These texts argue that a general must be fully aware of the strengths of both sides before he can win a battle. Because Taiwan and China have long been in a state of hostility and because Taiwanese officials are barred from visiting China, they have failed to acquire a good understanding of the drastic changes and rapid growth of the Chinese fishery industry and even continue to perceive them as thieves. In the context of future fishery negotiations, this is worrying.
Moreover, an analysis of both sides’ diplomatic negotiation skills shows that Taiwan’s 15 rounds of negotiations with Japan have all failed to reach a consensus over the Diaoyutai (釣魚台) islands controversy, which in turn has led to incessant fishery disputes and increased the risk of an accidental clash.
Conversely, China has tabled the issue of sovereignty over the Diaoyutais in its negotiations with Japan and adopted joint management of the overlapping areas of the respective economic zones. China has demonstrated negotiation skills in seeking common ground while resolving differences and, if differences cannot be resolved, in seeking common ground while reserving differences. This shows that the skills of Chinese negotiators are much more developed than that of their Taiwanese counterparts.
Before heading to the negotiation table, one must gather information and carry out objective analysis and consider all possible strategies before choosing the most appropriate time to carry out the “planned” negotiations. In addition, one needs to predict and be prepared for all possible outcomes to avoid being defeated. Since negotiations mean that both sides seek mutual benefits based on the needs and perspectives of both parties, Taiwan cannot expect the other side to accept all its demands.
It must also provide an adequate response to the other party’s requests if negotiations are to succeed. Imagine if Chinese were to ask that, as part of WTO agreements, imported products be treated as domestic products to guarantee fair competition.
They could then demand that Taiwan allow the import and sale of Chinese aquatic products and, in order to protect the safety of their workers, that Taiwanese employers provide liability insurance, minimum wage guarantees and the same level of welfare as that guaranteed for Taiwanese workers. The first principle would mean that because China’s aquatic products have the advantage of low production costs, allowing their import would endanger Taiwan’s fishery industry, while the latter would increase operational costs, which would further aggravate an already difficult situation for fishing boat owners. What could Taiwan do then?
These are issues that must be considered in detail before entering into negotiations lest Taiwan suffer a great loss to gain a small advantage.
Although negotiations involve a series of processes, the major manipulators are still those who actually conduct the negotiations. The recent negotiations between the US and South Korea about US beef imports showed that the South Korean delegation made a number of mistakes, including an insufficient number of representatives with expert knowledge, a misreading of the situation, rash actions and interpreters lacking special knowledge on the issues under discussion. This almost forced South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and his administration to step down, an experience that should serve as an example for Taiwan.
In this day and age, negotiations have replaced confrontation. If the government wants to engage in substantive fisheries negotiations with China, it should not limit itself to a discourse based on scientific data. A more urgent matter is to systematically train negotiators with fishery expertise and ensure that they thoroughly understand Chinese thinking and negotiating techniques.
Li Wu-chung is a part-time professor of agricultural economics. Liao I-Chiu is a research fellow at Academia Sinica.
TRANSLATED BY TED YANG AND PERRY SVENSSON
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