Beirut's latest political murder may dampen hopes of US talks with Syria and shockwaves could short-circuit a US drive for a new Middle East with Lebanon as a "crown jewel," analysts said.
While Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel's killing will be felt most in the streets of Beirut and Middle Eastern capitals, its impact was already affecting US policy in the region on Tuesday.
An early casualty may be the idea of dialogue with US foes Damascus and Tehran expected to be mooted soon by a commission co-chaired by former secretary of state James Baker probing new strategy for Iraq.
"It is going to be much harder," said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert and co-director of Peace Studies at the University of Oklahoma.
In the wake of Tuesday's murder, US President George W. Bush showed no sign of moderating his tone to preserve a diplomatic opening, accusing Syria and Iran of fomenting "instability and violence" in Lebanon, though stopping short of apportioning direct blame.
Syria's embassy in Washington hit back, saying attempts to pin Gemayel's death on Damascus were a well-worn "charade."
Some analysts saw the killing as the latest step in a bid by the Iran and Syria-backed Shiite Hezbollah militia to topple the US-endorsed government of Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora.
Others divined an effort by Syria to prevent Siniora's government from endorsing a UN-sanctioned tribunal agreed on Tuesday into the killing last year of the late Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
But with many diplomatic signals pointing to a desire by Damascus to go to the table with Washington, why would Syria initiate new tensions?
"I believe the Syrians ... know they will be implicated [by the UN tribunal] at a very high level ... they have to stop this," said David Schenker, senior fellow in Arab politics at the Washington Near East Institute.
Schenker said Syrian outreach to Iran and Iraq in recent days was consistent with past attempts to deflect diplomatic pressure, at a time when the screws were tightening on Syria at the UN.
Analysts also suggested the killing could be the work of rogue factions in Syria or its intelligence services, or even be score settling in Lebanon's fractured political jungle.
If the intent of Gemayel's killers was to halt the Hariri tribunal, it will fail, said Brookings Institution analyst Bilal Saab.
"Regardless whether the Americans are going to talk to the Syrians or the Iranians, the international tribunal is a top priority and there is no turning back on that," he said.
Gemayel's murder meanwhile threatened to sweep Siniora from power and raised fears here planned street demonstrations by Hezbollah could turn out to be the first shots in a new Lebanese civil war.
Even a peaceful collapse of the Siniora government would deal a severe blow to the US democratization agenda in the region, in which the Bush administration has invested significant political prestige.
Lebanon "certainly was the sort of crown jewel in the administration's Middle East portfolio, but they are going to have to regroup," said Schenker, who served Bush as a Pentagon Middle East advisor.
Bilal Saab said the failure of the Siniora government would be a "setback for the Bush administration."
"The Americans believe that this government is capable of advancing US interests -- the flourishing of democracy in the region -- and they see Lebanon an example of democracy taking its way," Saab said.
Landis was more blunt.
"Lebanon is the last success story. If it falls, it is the end," he said.
Bush supporters hailed the parliamentary elections in Lebanon and retreat of Syrian occupiers as a triumph for democracy, and vindication of the president's call for a wave of reform to create a "new" Middle East.
But US-backed elections have brought the radical Islamic Hamas group to power in the Palestinian territories, emboldened radical Muslim groups in Egypt and done little to quell violence in Iraq.
Once again, Lebanon seems to be a proxy battlefield for international political tensions, as it was during the war between Israel and Hezbollah.
"The US is going to use Lebanon as a battering ram," against Syria and Iran, Landis said. Syria meanwhile, "feels the tide is running out on America's imperial authority in the Middle East."
On May 7, 1971, Henry Kissinger planned his first, ultra-secret mission to China and pondered whether it would be better to meet his Chinese interlocutors “in Pakistan where the Pakistanis would tape the meeting — or in China where the Chinese would do the taping.” After a flicker of thought, he decided to have the Chinese do all the tape recording, translating and transcribing. Fortuitously, historians have several thousand pages of verbatim texts of Dr. Kissinger’s negotiations with his Chinese counterparts. Paradoxically, behind the scenes, Chinese stenographers prepared verbatim English language typescripts faster than they could translate and type them
More than 30 years ago when I immigrated to the US, applied for citizenship and took the 100-question civics test, the one part of the naturalization process that left the deepest impression on me was one question on the N-400 form, which asked: “Have you ever been a member of, involved in or in any way associated with any communist or totalitarian party anywhere in the world?” Answering “yes” could lead to the rejection of your application. Some people might try their luck and lie, but if exposed, the consequences could be much worse — a person could be fined,
Xiaomi Corp founder Lei Jun (雷軍) on May 22 made a high-profile announcement, giving online viewers a sneak peek at the company’s first 3-nanometer mobile processor — the Xring O1 chip — and saying it is a breakthrough in China’s chip design history. Although Xiaomi might be capable of designing chips, it lacks the ability to manufacture them. No matter how beautifully planned the blueprints are, if they cannot be mass-produced, they are nothing more than drawings on paper. The truth is that China’s chipmaking efforts are still heavily reliant on the free world — particularly on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Keelung Mayor George Hsieh (謝國樑) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) on Tuesday last week apologized over allegations that the former director of the city’s Civil Affairs Department had illegally accessed citizens’ data to assist the KMT in its campaign to recall Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) councilors. Given the public discontent with opposition lawmakers’ disruptive behavior in the legislature, passage of unconstitutional legislation and slashing of the central government’s budget, civic groups have launched a massive campaign to recall KMT lawmakers. The KMT has tried to fight back by initiating campaigns to recall DPP lawmakers, but the petition documents they
RSS