Is a coup possible in Taiwan?
At first glance, this seems to be a far-fetched, even paranoid, question. Until this year, I would have thought it so unlikely as not to be worth asking.
Sadly, although the risk remains quite small, it is no longer possible to say with confidence that it is negligible. While we should all certainly hope such a thing wouldn't happen, it doesn't do any good to simply close our eyes and wish the risks away.
To begin with, consider page four of the Chinese-language United Evening News on Sept. 20, which was filled with reports on the coup in Thailand. The coverage was almost gushingly positive, centering on a photo of a lady offering a flower to a soldier, adding the slogan "nonviolent and peaceful" -- a slogan of the demonstrations to oust President Chen Shui-bian (
An "analysis" article beside the picture was titled "Why a coup? The army took the initiative to handle a premier who was corrupt," again using the same term that the anti-Chen groups use to describe the president's alleged corruption. What is the point of this article other than to encourage a coup in Taiwan?
As for the demonstrators on Taipei's streets, it is reasonable to suppose that most of them would welcome a Taiwanese version of what happened in Bangkok. After all, their loudly stated position is for Chen to step down, by any means. They apparently even prefer Vice President Annette Lu (
This is very odd. It now seems clear that there are a small number of people involved in the campaign who are known associates of Lu, and may even think they are acting on Lu's behalf. But they are a drop in the demonstration bucket. For the vast majority of the demonstrators, Lu must be a quite unpalatable "lesser of two evils" choice, since she is not at all more sympathetic to their ideology.
Surely they would be even more satisfied if a nice upstanding general would take power? Indeed so. Having visited the demonstrations several times on varying days and times, it is apparent that a majority of them are the very same people who used to support the New Party.
This group, which emerged from the old Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) "non-mainstream" faction, was strongly pro- military, and to this day its successors have many deep ties with the armed forces.
The good news is that the demonstrators represent just a small minority of Taiwanese society beyond the New Party's support base plus a smattering of related groups in Taipei. So far, there is no sign of a genuine, broad-based national movement emerging. This is why a more serious degeneration of the situation is still not the most likely outcome.
Nevertheless, we still need to ask, under what circumstances could a coup occur? The most obvious one would be if widespread riots broke out that the police were unable to control. Sadly, again, the evidence before us suggests that serious riots are not only possible, but rather likely. Any one of the minor incidents that are now happening almost daily around the country could, with a little bad luck, flare up into something more dangerous.
Moreover, the frustration levels among the demonstrators, in particular, are certain to rise steadily, as it becomes ever more clear that their campaign to oust the president has no chance of succeeding.
This brings us to some comments by Yang Tu (楊渡), a senior editor of the Chinese-language China Times. On his blog on Sept. 6, even before the protests officially started, he laid out the whole scenario. Peaceful protests won't work, he wrote, so "the only way" to get Chen to step down is for the anti-Chen people to get "radical" and generate enough chaos so that the US would give the signal to Taiwan's army to take over and restore order.
This tract demonstrates once again that the irresponsibility of Taiwan's media is a key factor raising the risk of disaster.
It is probable that the police could handle a major riot. But what if they couldn't? Or what if overreaction by the police -- didn't they gun down a drug user on Sept. 17 -- turned the crowd against them? Or what if -- as Yang suggested -- they refuse to suppress the riot and switch sides?
Coming back to Thailand, I felt a shiver down my spine when I read the report of the comments of one of the leaders of their "Peoples Alliance for Democracy"
He "praised the army chief for staging the coup."
Under normal circumstances, it would be unfair to Chen to compare him to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Only the latter has raked in literally billions of dollars by nefarious means, and only the latter has presided over a government that has engaged in human rights abuses.
And yet, when we look at the news from Thailand, we should reflect on its lessons for Taiwan. Removing a democratically elected leader by extraconstitutional means, however objectionable or lame he may be, is no laughing matter.
Bo Tedards is a political commentator based in Taipei.
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) on Tuesday returned from her visit to the US, where she had met with several US senators and representatives, think tanks, and overseas Taiwanese and Chinese communities, espousing her vision of promoting cross-strait dialogue as a way to evade war. On Monday last week, she sat down with US academic Orville Schell and Asia Society Policy Institute distinguished fellow Daniel Russel. Russel is a seasoned diplomat who has served in positions related to East Asian and Indo-Pacific affairs. At the conclusion of the discussion, Russel employed his considerable diplomatic experience and knowledge
In the aftermath of China’s expulsion of the New York Times correspondent Vivian Wang (王月眉), Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Lin Jian (林劍) has publicly and explicitly articulated Beijing’s core thinking on the Taiwan issue. Chinese authorities accused the newspaper of promoting what they called “Taiwan independence fallacies,” and said that its description of Taiwan as a country amounts to a challenge to the “one China” principle. The significance of the incident goes beyond the reporting dispute and has given the international community a window into the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) attitude toward Taiwan. Lin, in a statement, said
Every semester, universities ask students to evaluate their professors. Feedback is an important component of academic quality and accountability. Still, the growing emphasis on student evaluations reflects a broader shift within higher education: the increasing tendency to judge educational success through the lens of student satisfaction. However, is the primary purpose of a university to satisfy students, or to educate them? It seems that higher education has become increasingly focused on making learning more enjoyable, engaging, and accessible. Students frequently report that classes are too early, too late, too long, too demanding or insufficiently engaging. They ask for fewer lectures
Japanese Minister of Defense Shinjiro Koizumi and Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro spoke at the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore on May 31, presenting a vision of peace, stability and supply chain resilience in the South and East China seas. The vision was to be based on the cooperation of like-minded regional partners working within the parameters of international law and transparency of intent. That they had to specify these parameters was a pointed and explicit reference to the coercive and unilateral actions of China in the region. Like Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines have good reason
RSS