China's newfound diplomatic skills

China has come a long way in dealing with the outside world. The difference between its more refined diplomatic skills today and the heavy-handed tactics of the revolutionary past is like that between heaven and earth.

This evolution has deep historical roots, and may bring good news and bad to the Asia-Pacific region. In the forthcoming summit between Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) and US President George W. Bush, such change may be highly significant.

The motto of Beijing's current foreign policy is "Never go it alone when doing unpleasant business." There are three variations on this theme.

First, always take a partner when opposing someone. In June last year, China joined the US in rejecting the addition of new members to the UN Security Council, which included Japan, a close ally of Washington. The reason for the Bush administration's objection was of course not Tokyo but Berlin, which was in the same package of applicants.

In the next month, China joined Russia in asking the US to withdraw troops from Central Asia stationed there after the US forces entered Afghanistan in 2001. Both Beijing and Moscow felt uncomfortable about the US military intrusion into their "backyard."

Likewise, China joined South Korea in criticizing Japan's insistence on honoring its war dead, which includes war criminals from World War II. Recently, China joined Russia again in backing Iran, a key oil supplier for China, on Tehran's development of its nuclear capacity.

Second, stay behind the leading hatchet man. When the US was preparing to invade Iraq in 2003, China carefully followed half a step behind France, Germany and Russia in opposing Washington's war plans but never led the group. In mid-2003, the US requested that Singapore patrol the pirate-infested Malacca Strait. China feared that its oil supply route might be choked off by American forces, yet said nothing to Singapore. Instead, it quietly approached Malaysia and Indonesia who then strongly voiced their objections. In April 2004, Washington formally dropped the idea with the adoption of the Regional Maritime Security Initiative.

Third, focus the attack on one and woo the rest. China is currently applying this strategy to Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁). Both have angered Beijing with their insistence on nationalism. Beijing courted not only the populations at large in the two countries, but also extended goodwill to the members of each country's ruling parties.

There is historical precedent for all of these strategies. The Chinese sage Laozi (老子) said more than 25 centuries ago, "do not take the lead under the heaven" (不為天下先). During the Cold War, former Chinese Communist Party chairman Mao Zedong (毛澤東) laid down the guideline, "never seek hegemony" (不稱霸). His eventual successor Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) added another: "dim our light and thrive in the shadow" (韜光養晦). Even back in its formative years, the Chinese Communist Party was famous for its maneuvers known as "ally with the secondary enemy while attacking the primary enemy."

However, Beijing in the 21st century has gone beyond this in sophistication and flexibility. The "secondary enemy" may become the "primary enemy" on different issues.

The cornerstone of Beijing's current foreign policy is how it approaches the US, namely "cooperation is more important than contradiction." It is based on a realistic assessment that military confrontation with the sole superpower now would be disastrous. The notion also reflects Beijing's confidence that time is on its side, which stems from the country's seemingly unstoppable economic growth.