China has come a long way in dealing with the outside world. The difference between its more refined diplomatic skills today and the heavy-handed tactics of the revolutionary past is like that between heaven and earth.
This evolution has deep historical roots, and may bring good news and bad to the Asia-Pacific region. In the forthcoming summit between Chinese President Hu Jintao (
The motto of Beijing's current foreign policy is "Never go it alone when doing unpleasant business." There are three variations on this theme.
First, always take a partner when opposing someone. In June last year, China joined the US in rejecting the addition of new members to the UN Security Council, which included Japan, a close ally of Washington. The reason for the Bush administration's objection was of course not Tokyo but Berlin, which was in the same package of applicants.
In the next month, China joined Russia in asking the US to withdraw troops from Central Asia stationed there after the US forces entered Afghanistan in 2001. Both Beijing and Moscow felt uncomfortable about the US military intrusion into their "backyard."
Likewise, China joined South Korea in criticizing Japan's insistence on honoring its war dead, which includes war criminals from World War II. Recently, China joined Russia again in backing Iran, a key oil supplier for China, on Tehran's development of its nuclear capacity.
Second, stay behind the leading hatchet man. When the US was preparing to invade Iraq in 2003, China carefully followed half a step behind France, Germany and Russia in opposing Washington's war plans but never led the group. In mid-2003, the US requested that Singapore patrol the pirate-infested Malacca Strait. China feared that its oil supply route might be choked off by American forces, yet said nothing to Singapore. Instead, it quietly approached Malaysia and Indonesia who then strongly voiced their objections. In April 2004, Washington formally dropped the idea with the adoption of the Regional Maritime Security Initiative.
Third, focus the attack on one and woo the rest. China is currently applying this strategy to Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and President Chen Shui-bian (
There is historical precedent for all of these strategies. The Chinese sage Laozi (
However, Beijing in the 21st century has gone beyond this in sophistication and flexibility. The "secondary enemy" may become the "primary enemy" on different issues.
The cornerstone of Beijing's current foreign policy is how it approaches the US, namely "cooperation is more important than contradiction." It is based on a realistic assessment that military confrontation with the sole superpower now would be disastrous. The notion also reflects Beijing's confidence that time is on its side, which stems from the country's seemingly unstoppable economic growth.
A June 2003 analysis by China's foreign ministry stated: "In the next eight to 10 years, it is highly possible that the momentum of US strategic expansion will slow down after reaching its peak." Beijing's official English newspaper, the China Daily, no longer accepts submissions that criticize the US.
In fact, the two countries' official communication has reached an unprecedented magnitude since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949. Four traits are discernible in this relationship.
First, officials from Beijing and Washington are meeting at a higher frequency than ever before.
Second, these meetings have become institutionalized into regular events.
Third, the varieties of officials meeting their counterparts have increased from trade administrators all the way to military personnel, which was fully accomplished when the reluctant US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld finally visited Beijing last November.
Fourth, the levels of officials holding meetings have expanded downward from heads of state in pompous ceremonies to department deputy assistant secretaries in substantive working sessions. Partly as a result, the US people are less inclined now than in the past to view China as an adversary, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll.
Last year, US neighbors both to the north and south played into China's hands, defying Washington in order to strengthen their economic ties with Beijing. Nevertheless, no one could blame Beijing for it.
Last October, then Canadian prime minister Paul Martin threatened to sell oil and timber to China instead of the US, if Bush refused to pay the US$5 billion refund as decreed by the North American Trade Association. Last November, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said he would sell F-16s to China and buy new fighters from Beijing, if Washington continued to sanction the supplies of spare parts to Caracas.
The good news about Beijing's recently acquired diplomatic aplomb is that a war across the Pacific is less likely, as China prefers extra-military tools such as economic and cultural measures to the military option in its pursuit of great power status. The rapid modernization of the People's Liberation Army is mainly intended to boost Beijing's diplomacy, not intended for use in actual combat.
The bad news is that those who anticipate the continuing US dominance of East Asia may face an uncertain future. An emergence of China without bloodshed will encounter less resistance, and therefore be more likely to succeed.
When Bush and Hu meet this time, we should keep our eyes open for the third-party loser.
Lin Chong-Pin, a former deputy minister of defense, is president of the Foundation of Cross-Strait and International Studies in Taipei.
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