The pan-green loss in the local elections has caused concern among observers in the US and Japan who are worried that it will bring Taiwan closer to China. In Taiwan, there have been political demands for the government's China policies to be further tightened, which emphasize that barring direct transportation links is not enough to resuscitate Taiwan's economy.
Discussing these worries based on the election results is too simplistic. These elections were local elections from the county level and down, not a referendum on the government's China policies. The number of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) county commissioners and mayors fell from nine to six, a drubbing in other words. Post-election introspection and policy adjustments are only natural. The total DPP vote only fell by 3.3 percentage points, so it is certainly not appropriate to draw too many conclusions about public opinion from the results of the elections.
Furthermore, voters did not cast their ballots in order to monitor the government's China policy. It is important that the government not misjudge these factors and make any rash decisions.
A clear pro-China trend has developed in the wake of the elections. We can only hope now that the government will not misinterpret public opinion and carelessly relax cross-strait policy, and that the pan-blue camp will not overestimate the support voters gave them and let their legislative majority lead to fanaticism and the passing of defeatist laws or laws pandering to China -- such as the cross-strait peace advancement bill or the plan to open Taipei's Sungshan Airport to direct flights between Taiwan and China. Such measures would run counter to the wishes of the public.
The fact is that a recent opinion poll released by the Mainland Affairs Council shows that 76 percent of the public said that direct cross-strait flights should be "conditionally opened," while only 29 percent wanted them to be "unconditionally opened." Also, 57.8 percent said that the government should be "a bit stricter" toward companies investing in China, while 55 percent said that cross-strait negotiations should be directed by the government. This is the public's real opinion on China policy. Unless they want to commit political suicide, politicians from either camp should take care not to act rashly.
Public opinion is a reflection of common sense. The opinion poll not only expresses suspicion of and dislike for China's Taiwan ambitions, it also highlights the opinion that the government has gone too far in deregulating trade with China -- not that too little has been done. Exports to China, including Hong Kong, already make up 37.6 percent of Taiwanese exports, while China-bound investment makes up 60 percent of all Taiwan's foreign investment. In addition to doing all it can to annex Taiwan, China's many crises -- such as the widening rich-poor gap, the collapsing financial industry, environmental pollution, out-of-control public health and corruption -- have already led to a decrease in foreign direct investment this year.
Taiwan's "active opening, effective management" policy may have fattened some enterprises in recent years, but at the price of undermining industry, and seeing capital and manpower flow out of the country, together with employment opportunities. This has exposed the economy to an extremely high China-related risk.
The government should try to determine why it has been incapable of directing Taiwan's transforming economy over the last few years and guaranteeing growth as it followed pro-China opinion -- with its enthusiasm for developing export trade -- and mistook the deregulation of trade with China for globalization. The result is that when the alarm is raised because dependence on China is clearly too high, this is seen as being isolationist.
Additionally, although the massive move of industry to China has helped businesses grow and cut costs, important tasks such as technological upgrades, innovation, and research and development have been neglected. This includes the local technology industry, whose production volumes are among the world's highest. Profits and added value in this segment are on the low side, which shows that further efforts are needed to improve the economy and industry as a whole.
What the transforming Taiwanese economy needs is improvement. In other words, it needs to strengthen trade, technological cooperation and exchanges with other advanced countries. This is true for the technology sector as well as other industries. When it comes to developing tourism, for example, the focus should be on attracting tourists from the US, Europe and Japan, and not on suspicious Chinese tour groups. In the same way, there is much more money to be made by exporting the many excellent varieties of Taiwanese fruit to Japan and the US rather than China.
As for international development, foreign investors have in recent years shown an interest in investing in Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries, as well as India. Taiwan should consider reinstating the "go south" policy. When necessary, Taiwan should cooperate with Japan, and reduce the risk that comes with big investments in China.
The domestic investment environment must be improved and the government should pay attention to and service those who work hard in Taiwan. Legislation should be relaxed, administrative efficiency improved, the tax system made more reasonable and the financial system reformed.
But these issues cannot be suddenly brandished during election campaigns, and it is particularly inappropriate to let them become mere formalities handled in big meetings. Instead, such meetings should be carefully planned and debated throughout society, and efforts should be made to bring hope for Taiwan's future to those who make their lives here, be they business owners or workers. This is the government's unshirkable duty and the legislative opposition should also stop their prolonged protests which are affecting the economy as a whole.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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