Poles are to have 12 presidential candidates to choose from at the ballot box this Sunday, but only a liberal and a right-wing conservative appear to have a shot at victory in Poland's fourth democratic presidential elections since the 1989 collapse of communism, also the first since its EU accession in May of last year.
The victor will assume the post first held by Solidarity legend Lech Walesa following his 1990 win and later by his ex-communist rival Aleksander Kwasniewski for two subsequent five-year terms.
Liberal Civic Platform (PO) leader Donald Tusk, a 48-year-old historian, has managed to ride the crest of a popularity wave ahead of right-wing runner-up Warsaw Mayor Lech Kaczynski.
While both have roots in the 1980s anti-communist Solidarity opposition, the campaign ahead of the ballot has not been reminiscent of a friendly race between old comrades in arms.
At 56, Kaczynski is half of Poland's most famous political double-act featuring himself and his identical twin brother Jaroslaw, the leader of the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS).
In Poland's Sept. 25 parliamentary election, the PiS scored 26.99 percent or 155 seats and a narrow victory ahead of the PO which took 24.14 percent support or 133 seats out of a total of 460.
Analysts agree both Tusk and Kaczynski are using stuttering coalition talks between their respective parties during the two-week interval before the Oct. 9 presidential ballot to boost their campaigns, and that the PiS's parliamentary victory is playing into Kaczynski's hands as he narrows the popularity gap.
Surveys published days ahead of the first round of voting on Sunday show Tusk losing his points advantage on Kaczynski. But less than a week ahead of election day, it still appeared he would nevertheless emerge the victor from a likely second-round run-off ballot Oct. 23.
Kaczynski scored 33 percent, just 4 points behind the Civic Platform's (PO) Tusk who commanded a 37-percent backing, according to the PBS survey published by the liberal Gazeta Wyborcza on Tuesday. A TSN OBOP survey published the same day showed Tusk in pole position with 41-percent support ahead of Kaczynski with 32 percent.
Despite Tusk's clear advantage, commentators point out his ratings have slipped from near 50-percent support in the wake of the PiS parliamentary victory. Fed-up with years of high profile corruption scandals which plagued not only the out-going ex-communist government, but also the previous post-Solidarity administration, analysts note honesty and integrity as well as foreign policy acumen are qualities voters will be looking for in a winner.
Social and economic "solidarity" has become the buzzword for both Tusk and Kaczynski, with the candidates vowing to put a premium on integrity in public life.
Avowedly liberal, Tusk promises to be "principled" and that his presidency would see Poland develop as a "strong" and "modern" country prizing the values of "openness," "freedom" and "courtesy" on both the domestic and international stage.
The Head of Poland's Institute of Public Affairs Professor Lena Kolarska-Bobinska observes that while the PiS won the parliamentary race by raising fears the PO would introduce too many liberal reforms too quickly, the PO will now attempt to smash Kaczynski's credentials as an even-handed statesman in order to scupper his presidential ambitions.
"Now the PO will be winning this campaign by raising fears, by saying `They [PiS] want conflicts with our neighbors -- the president is a person responsible for international politics' and Donald Tusk will fashion himself as a statesman who will want to conduct foreign policy in a much less confrontational manner," she recently told Poland's commercial TVN 24 news channel.
As Warsaw mayor, Kaczynski earned a reputation as a combative nationalist in the foreign policy arena by mincing no words on the issue of Poland's World War II-era material and human losses under German and Soviet occupation.
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