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Sino-Russian exercises dangerous

What is the purpose of the Sino-Russian military exercise entitled "Peace Mission 2005" that began on Thursday? To answer this question, we have to look at the background of the exercise.

The first stage started on July 1, 2002, when Japanese-language daily the Sankei Shimbun quoted diplomatic sources in Beijing as saying that the Chinese and Russian armies were going to hold a joint exercise in Siberia, northeastern China, the Sea of Japan and the Yellow Sea, with the US as the simulated enemy.

Postponement

The exercise was set to take place in August and September that year. It was called "Cooperation 2005," and the goal was to attack terrorists.

Without explanation, however, the exercise was postponed.

The second stage began on Feb. 3 this year, when Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Kong Quan (孔泉) said at a news conference that China and Russia were going to hold a joint military exercise in the second half of the year. Afterward, Russian media revealed that the two countries were planning to send 100 people each to participate in the exercise, which was initially planned for August and September, but that it might be postponed until October.

It was to take place in the Yellow Sea and on the Liaodong Peninsula, and the exercises would include surrounding and capturing terrorists and drug smugglers.

The third stage began in late June, before Chinese President Hu Jintao's (胡錦濤) visit to Russia, when several Russian media outlets quoted a report from the Russian defense ministry that said the exercise would be held between Aug. 18 and 25, include 8,000 people and be expanded to include the Shandong Peninsula. The current exercise basically followed this plan.

The revisions

Looking at these changes, a few points stand out. First, China initiated the exercise but then retired into the background after the basic format had been decided to let the Russian army promote it in the media. Second, the original name, "Cooperation," was changed to "Peace." Third, the number of participants rose sharply from 200 to 8,000. Fourth, August was chosen for the exercise. Fifth, the exercise area was expanded to include Shandong Peninsula.

Why did these changes occur and what do they tell us?

It seems that the "colored" revolution that took place not long ago prompted China and Russia to greatly expand the scope of the exercise to display their strength for the US to see.

The target?

As for the purpose of the exercise, it is said that they are not aiming it at any one specific country, but no one continues to stress the original anti-terrorist purpose, and I don't think that too many people will believe that 8,000 troops would be mobilized to surround and capture terrorists and smugglers.

Changing the name only served to make its purpose even clearer. So what is the main purpose of the exercise?

Military experts believe that it is aimed at Taiwan, the US and Japan. Russian media share this point of view, and some even oppose Russian involvement in the cross-strait dispute, adding that Russia is allowing itself to be used by China.

Judging from the location of the exercise, however, it is targeting Japan, with both the location and timing being very sensitive to Japan.

War wounds

The drill was postponed from 2002 to 2005, and of the three months of August, September and October, August was chosen. Although the exercise officially began on Aug. 18, the pre-exercise began on Aug. 15, which was the 60th anniversary of Japan's World War II surrender, and it became a major part of China's celebrations of the end of its war of resistance against Japan.

The inclusion of the Shandong Peninsula in the exercise was also aimed at Japan. After the Russo-Japanese War began in 1904, the Japanese army routed the Russian army in Lushunkou and other places on the Liaodong Peninsula. This historic wound still smarts with the Russian army. As such, it made more sense to hold the exercise on the Shandong Peninsula and make it a sea and air invasion, because although the area belonged to Germany before World War I, Japan took over the German concessions in China after the war, which led to the May Fourth movement.

According to the last report on the exercise, Siberia was only used for a meeting that was held in Vladivostok between the Russian and Chinese leaders of the exercise.

That meeting was followed by a simulation of the exercise. Two days later the exercise began on the Shandong Peninsula and in the Yellow Sea next to Japan, basically unconnected to the Liaodong Peninsula.

One could say that this exercise is directed by Beijing to achieve the best political and military results.

For Russia, in addition to being dissatisfied with the US over several issues, the reason it wanted to participate was basically that, since Beijing is footing the bill for the exercise, Russia could use it as a free opportunity to display Russian-made arms.

China of course had its reasons for targeting Japan with the exercise.

First, aiming at Japan is the best way to stir up nationalist fervor among the Chinese public. Second, it was warning Japan that it must not sympathize with and support Taiwan. Third, it increases public support for the idea that a war with Japan is necessary. Fourth, it threatens Japan into giving way on disputes over territorial and energy issues. Fifth, it warns the US, which supports Japan.

On Alert

The security of Taiwan, the US and Japan has become one and the same issue. In addition to reinforcing these three nations' determination to resist threats, China's joining up with Russia in a military exercise will also put Asia and the rest of the world on alert and cause them to work harder to protect the peace in the Asian region.

This is the result of putting the word "peace" in "Peace Mission 2005." We can only guess what the impression will be on the Chinese public of seeing Russia making a grand entrance and replacing the Japanese Imperial Army.

Paul Lin is a freelance writer based in New York.

Translated by Perry Svensson
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