If North Korea carries out a nuclear test, tension will soar and the prospect of talks with the US and other regional powers could fade for a long time. So the North's recent expression of interest in talks suggests it might refrain from such a provocative act for now.
North Korea's history of belligerent behavior dates to its 1950 invasion of US-backed South Korea, triggering a war that killed millions. But today, North Korea is weak and isolated, lacking fuel and spare parts for its aging conventional weaponry. Its leader, Kim Jong-il, likely knows that a nuclear test -- an aggressive tactic designed to win concessions -- might backfire, ruffling friendlier nations such as China and Russia and inviting a punitive response from Washington and its allies.
This month, US officials said spy satellites spotted tunnels being dug and the construction of a reviewing stand in northeastern North Korea, possible preparations for a nuclear test that would sharpen the dispute over the North's manufacture of atomic bombs.
Late on Thursday, North Korea denied reports that it might be preparing a nuclear test.
"The US leadership has recently ... come out with a fabrication that there are some kind of missile tests and signs of an underground nuclear test," said the Korean Central Television Station, the North's only nationwide network.
The North Korean quandary is likely to be a prominent topic when US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and regional defense ministers meet at an annual forum in Singapore from Thursday until Sunday. The North Koreans were invited, but are not expected to attend.
In a keynote speech at the forum, South Korean Defense Minister Yoon Kwang-ung will "deliver South Korea's position on the North Korean nuclear issue and appeal for international support," the defense ministry in Seoul said.
Yoon will also discuss the security situation on the Korean Peninsula with his counterparts.
Solution
South Korea and its chief ally, the US, want the peninsula to be free of nuclear weapons and seek a peaceful, diplomatic solution to the standoff. The South, however, takes a conciliatory approach toward the North, while US policy and pronouncements tend to be tougher.
Kim Jong-il's goal is to preserve a destitute regime whose totalitarian character has barely changed since his late father and predecessor, Kim Il-sung, founded North Korea in 1948. To do that, he needs economic aid from the outside world, the West in particular.
Negotiations are vital to that strategy, though three rounds of six-party talks in Beijing on curbing North Korea's nuclear know-how ended inconclusively. Dictator Kim, who lives in luxury in Pyongyang palaces as the populace starves and doesn't have to worry about being voted out of office, seems willing to wait out, or wear down, his adversaries. A nuclear test, however, would inflame the standoff and possibly alienate China, North Korea's last ally.
Kurt Campbell, former US assistant secretary of defense for Asia in the Clinton administration, has said that it could lead South Korea and Japan to rethink their current policy against nuclear arsenals.
"The potential downside of a test is enormous," he said. "It would set off a chain reaction in the region with completely impossible-to-predict consequences."
Last Tuesday, North Korea reiterated that it wanted to resolve the issue peacefully and through dialogue, though it also scolded the US, saying the superpower's "hostile" policies led Pyongyang to develop a "nuclear deterrent."
RSS