Mon, Apr 23, 2001 page8

• Get used to political defections

  • By Lee Ching-hsiung 李慶雄
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  Lawmaker Fong Ting-kuo (馮定國) has declared that he will join the People First Party (PFP) before the party's registration deadline for the year-end elections, as well as seek nomination by the PFP in that election. Fong said he had to sacrifice his love for the New Party for greater and more important causes. In addition, Fong said his supporters feel that if he is to fight for their interests in the parliament, his only choice is to join the PFP which holds similar ideologies to his.

  However, the New Party's elders seem unable to accept Fong's defection. The Fong incident has apparently ignited a premature battle among political parties. As the parties get closer to completing nominations for the year-end elections, more and more politicians will be defecting from weaker parties to stronger ones.

  The reason behind Fong's decision is none other than his hope to enjoy an election victory. Taichung County has 11 seats in the Legislative Yuan. Among them, the DPP could win two. Besides a possible seat for Fong, all other ones belong to the KMT's local factions.

  In the presidential election, PFP chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) garnered 38 percent of the votes in Taichung County. Even if the PFP adopts a conservative strategy of nominating only one candidate, the candidate would likely be able to win enough votes to defeat Fong if he ran on the New Party ticket.

  If we further take into consideration the small number of at-large district seats (the number of seats given to each party is calculated according to the percentage of total votes it receives in the election) the PFP is likely to enjoy, it's not surprising Fong decided to leave the New Party.

  The rise of the New Party began in the 1994 Taipei mayoral election. By the 1996 legislative elections, it had garnered 12.95 percent of the total vote, and 21 seats. However, by the following legislative poll, its percentage of votes had declined to 7.06.

  Although the total number of seats in the Legislative Yuan had increased by 60, the New Party won only 7 seats despite 36 nominations, making their success rate less than 2 percent. In comparison with the DPP's success rate of 67 percent and the KMT's 84 percent, it was obvious the New Party was no longer competitive.

  In last year's presidential election, Soong won approximately 4,660,000 votes, constituting 36 percent of the votes cast. It is not far off to say that in the absence of the so-called "dumping effect" (棄保效應) under which many voters "dumped" the KMT's Lien Chan (連戰) to save Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and therefore prevent Soong from winning, Soong could have won.

  In order to grow, the PFP has to recruit from the existing supporters of other political parties. As a result, the KMT will likely suffer some injuries, while the New Party will likely lose its elbow room.

  While Soong may have won a large percentage of votes in the presidential election, the PFP does not appear to target the same number of votes for the upcoming legislative election.

  Apart from the uncertainty over the transferability of votes for Soong, winning a percentage of votes does not guarantee a great number of seats for a party in Taiwan's multi-seat voting districts. Having a superstar candidate may simply suck up the votes of other candidates.

  The PFP must be particularly cautious with its first elections. Therefore, recruiting from other parties and inviting the incumbent lawmakers of other parties is necessary for PFP election success.

  Furthermore, the New Party and the PFP are similar in many respects. During the presidential election, the entire New Party campaigned for Soong. New Party Chairman Lee Ching-hua (李慶華) even left the New Party to campaign for Soong.

  Why can't New Party lawmakers join the PFP to ensure an election win now? It is inevitable that the New Party will merge with the PFP. Similarly, the Taiwan Independence Party had virtually no elbow room under the shadow of the DPP. The marginalization of the New Party has been caused by no less cruel political realities.

  People care a lot about politicians' party loyalty and the splits and mergers of parties. Therefore, the defection of one party's elders to another party before elections is often seen as interest- and election-motivated. However, in a genuine democracy, people should get used to the restructuring of ideologies and interests among parties.

  After the upcoming election, none of the three major parties, the DPP, KMT and PFP will have a legislative majority. Under the circumstances, the intricate web of alliances formed between parties to ensure leadership of the parliament will probably be quite astonishing. Unless personal feelings for ideologies are left behind, we will find it hard to adjust to future inter-party cooperation and new political developments.

  Lee Ching-hsiung is a Taiwan Independence Party lawmaker.
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