Taiwan's official representatives lobby by operating at different levels, ranging from the grassroots to the highest echelons. Establishing support from the bottom up is a long-term endeavor requiring continued efforts. In addition, both the media and whoever runs for office have to listen to community groups. Any lobbying in the US in ignorance of the media or the elected officials is not going to be effective. Taiwan has been skillful in orchestrating its lobbying programs using a comprehensive approach. The lobbying efforts target politicians at federal, state and city levels. Taiwan befriends academics, think tanks, ethnic groups, professionals and business people. Taiwan has been more successful than China, considering that its room to maneuver is much more circumscribed.
Having done everything within its power, however, Taiwan may still fail to win total US support.
First, China represents an enormous and yet to be exploited market for US products and services. China plays that card to its fullest extent. Major US corporations such as aircraft manufacturers, financial conglomerates and insurance companies go out of their way to lobby for China.
Second, China is the US' arch rival and occupies a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. When the Red Dragon gets angry, the US has to listen. The US is concerned about how China may exercise its veto and refuse to cooperate at the UN.
Third, the State Department is the branch of the US government most accommodating to China's wishes, whenever a Taiwan issue arises. Then secretary of state Warren Christopher intimated to China that his government would not allow Lee Teng-hui to visit Cornell University until the Congress voted in favor of his visit. China has been relentless in restricting Taiwan's room for operations at all diplomatic levels.
Fourth, the US has to take its own interests into account. The US would be reluctant to send ground forces to participate in a regional war simply because the loss of lives would not win votes for politicians. Hence, Taiwan has to think twice before believing that the US would deploy combative manpower to defend Taiwan's territory for a sustained period in the event that it faced an invasion by China.
The US will, however, comply with the TRA by selling military equipment and provisions to Taiwan for self-defense.
Frankie Leung is adjunct professor at the University of Southern California Law School, Los Angeles.
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