China's quasi-parliament, the National People's Congress, passed an "Anti-Secession" Law last week authorizing the Beijing government to take "non-peaceful measures" should Taiwan take any action that China chooses to define as "separatist."
Taiwan has been under the effective rule of China for only four years in the past century. The people of Taiwan increasingly consider themselves to be Taiwanese, not Chinese. A survey by the Election Study Center at National Chengchi University shows that the number of people who self-identify solely as Taiwanese has risen from 17.3 percent to 41.5 percent.
Over the past 30 years, Taiwan has become a successful, stable and prosperous democracy, and is Australia's seventh-largest trading partner. Australia's trade with Taiwan is worth some US$7 billion a year. Our China trade is worth US$28 billion.
Paradoxically, China and Taiwan have enjoyed increasingly close economic relations, while allowing the issue of Taiwan's status and its future to remain deliberately opaque. President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), despite his past support for independence, has not made any moves in that direction, and has pledged not to do so.
China has been both belligerent and conciliatory toward Taiwan, perhaps reflecting political differences within Beijing's communist leadership. But more worrying than its hot-and-cold rhetoric has been China's ominous arms build-up in recent years. Defense expenditures will reach US$38.1 billion this year, up by 12.6 percent from last year.
There is no doubt that Taiwan will fight to defend its freedom. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the US will be obliged to come to Taiwan's defense. The ANZUS treaty makes Australia a military ally of the US, so the nightmare scenario is that Australia may be drawn into any such conflict.
China understands this, and feels increasingly confident about throwing its weight around, which is why a senior Chinese Foreign Ministry official warned Australia last week to be careful not to invoke the ANZUS alliance against China.
Australia should be using its best offices to see that situation does not deteriorate further. We should counsel our friends in Taiwan not to make any provocative moves, and to stick to Chen's "five noes" policy (no declaration of independence; no change of the country's name; no references in the Constitution to state-to-state relations; no referendum on Taiwan's status; no abolition of the National Reunification Council).
However, we should also make clear to China that the use of force against Taiwan is not acceptable.
Australia's interest clearly lies in the preservation of the careful ambiguity of the current situation. With the 2008 Olympics coming up, it's clear that China's interests lie in continued economic progress, domestic political reform and peaceful co-operation with all of its neighbors. Australia has good relations with China, and everyone in this country wants that to continue. Both major parties are considering supporting a free-trade agreement.
Australia's vastly expanded economic ties are just as important as the political links at federal and state government level, and among parliaments, unions and even local governments. These have grown exponentially in the past decade, and may have put Beijing under the misapprehension that what former Russian leader Leonid Brezhnev called "the correlation of forces" has moved in their direction.
However, if China is to embark on military conflict with Taiwan, I think we will see a change in mood not just in this country but in Europe and the US.
I am sure that is a situation that wise heads in Beijing do not want.
Michael Danby is a Labor Party lawmaker in Australia.
Chinese agents often target Taiwanese officials who are motivated by financial gain rather than ideology, while people who are found guilty of spying face lenient punishments in Taiwan, a researcher said on Tuesday. While the law says that foreign agents can be sentenced to death, people who are convicted of spying for Beijing often serve less than nine months in prison because Taiwan does not formally recognize China as a foreign nation, Institute for National Defense and Security Research fellow Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲) said. Many officials and military personnel sell information to China believing it to be of little value, unaware that
Before 1945, the most widely spoken language in Taiwan was Tai-gi (also known as Taiwanese, Taiwanese Hokkien or Hoklo). However, due to almost a century of language repression policies, many Taiwanese believe that Tai-gi is at risk of disappearing. To understand this crisis, I interviewed academics and activists about Taiwan’s history of language repression, the major challenges of revitalizing Tai-gi and their policy recommendations. Although Taiwanese were pressured to speak Japanese when Taiwan became a Japanese colony in 1895, most managed to keep their heritage languages alive in their homes. However, starting in 1949, when the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) enacted martial law
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The central bank and the US Department of the Treasury on Friday issued a joint statement that both sides agreed to avoid currency manipulation and the use of exchange rates to gain a competitive advantage, and would only intervene in foreign-exchange markets to combat excess volatility and disorderly movements. The central bank also agreed to disclose its foreign-exchange intervention amounts quarterly rather than every six months, starting from next month. It emphasized that the joint statement is unrelated to tariff negotiations between Taipei and Washington, and that the US never requested the appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar during the
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