A flurry of news dispatches from the Korean Peninsula over the last 10 days has provided fresh evidence that things are spiraling toward chaos at that end of President George W. Bush's "axis of evil."
US relations with South Korea continued to slide downhill with Seoul's publication of a strange "white paper" on defense.
ILLUSTRATION: MOUNTAIN PEOPLE
North Korea asserted that it has actually produced nuclear weapons and, by refusing to continue negotiations, showed that it has no intention of giving up its nuclear ambitions.
In the first case, South Korea's Ministry of National Defense alleged that, in the event of hostilities with North Korea, the US would deploy 690,000 troops, 2000 warplanes, and 160 warships to the defense of South Korea.
That statement was absurd on the face of it. The 690,000 troops would require sending the entire US Army and the entire US Marine Corps to Korea, leaving all other missions to the National Guard and Reserves. The 2000 warplanes would be more than three times the aircraft assigned to the Pacific Air Forces. The 160 ships would be about half of the US Navy.
This claim, which was presumptuous, not to say bizarre, implied that the government of President Roh Moo-hyun could not deal with the implications of the US decision to reduce its forces in South Korea and to revise the mission of those that remain. The primary task of the US forces will be to prepare for contingencies anywhere, not just to help defend South Korea.
The South Korean white paper indicated that Roh's defense ministry sought to assure South Koreans that the US would not abandon them. Ironically, that effort came atop rampant anti-Americanism in Seoul, an increasing tendency among young South Koreans to appease North Korea, and a growing South Korean preference for ties with China rather than the US.
As an Australian scholar and student of Northeast Asia put it, South Korean relations with the US are delicately poised between affirmation and severance.
An e-mail message to the defense ministry in Seoul seeking clarification was not answered by the time of this writing, which may have been because of a national holiday in South Korea. Even so, the defense ministry has not denied press reports that have been floating around for more than a week.
The ministry's English-language Web site announcing the release of its white paper did not mention the dispatch of US forces but focused on a change in terms. Instead of calling North Korea "the main enemy," the report noted North Korea's"conventional military power, weapons of mass destruction, and forward deployment of military forces." The headquarters of US Forces in South Korea professed to be unaware of the white paper despite articles in the South Korean press, the Associated Press, and on Chinese and Vietnamese TV news. "I have no information regarding this ROK document," said an officer speaking for the command. "However, as a matter of policy we do not discuss the contents or details of operational plans."
North Korea, along with Iraq and Iran, were included in the"axis of evil" by President Bush shortly after the terrorist assaults in New York and Washington on Sept. 11, 2001. By claiming that they have produced nuclear weapons, the North Koreans evidently sought to confirm what they had hinted at many times in the past. They also said they would not continue the six party talks intended to dissuade them from going nuclear. In those negotiations, the US, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, and Russia have held three previous meetings in Beijing.
Pyongyang claimed that North Korea has "manufactured nukes for self-defense to cope with the Bush administration's evermore undisguised policy to isolate and stifle the DPRK." The Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea is the official name of North Korea and "nukes" is slang for nuclear arms. The US has long contended that North Korea has nuclear weapons.
On negotiations, the North Koreans said: "We are compelled to suspend our participation in the talks for an indefinite period till we have recognized that there is justification for us to attend the talks and there are ample conditions and atmosphere to expect positive results from the talks." Whether that was a bargaining ploy remained to be seen.
Before its nuclear announcement, Pyongyang proclaimed: "If the US imperialists ignite flames of war, we will first of all strike all bases of US imperialist aggressors and turn them into a sea of fire." That thundering, too, repeated earlier belligerence.
Richard Halloran is a journalist based in Hawaii.
Taiwan stands at the epicenter of a seismic shift that will determine the Indo-Pacific’s future security architecture. Whether deterrence prevails or collapses will reverberate far beyond the Taiwan Strait, fundamentally reshaping global power dynamics. The stakes could not be higher. Today, Taipei confronts an unprecedented convergence of threats from an increasingly muscular China that has intensified its multidimensional pressure campaign. Beijing’s strategy is comprehensive: military intimidation, diplomatic isolation, economic coercion, and sophisticated influence operations designed to fracture Taiwan’s democratic society from within. This challenge is magnified by Taiwan’s internal political divisions, which extend to fundamental questions about the island’s identity and future
The narrative surrounding Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attendance at last week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit — where he held hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin and chatted amiably with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) — was widely framed as a signal of Modi distancing himself from the US and edging closer to regional autocrats. It was depicted as Modi reacting to the levying of high US tariffs, burying the hatchet over border disputes with China, and heralding less engagement with the Quadrilateral Security dialogue (Quad) composed of the US, India, Japan and Australia. With Modi in China for the
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has postponed its chairperson candidate registration for two weeks, and so far, nine people have announced their intention to run for chairperson, the most on record, with more expected to announce their campaign in the final days. On the evening of Aug. 23, shortly after seven KMT lawmakers survived recall votes, KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) announced he would step down and urged Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕) to step in and lead the party back to power. Lu immediately ruled herself out the following day, leaving the subject in question. In the days that followed, several
The Jamestown Foundation last week published an article exposing Beijing’s oil rigs and other potential dual-use platforms in waters near Pratas Island (Dongsha Island, 東沙島). China’s activities there resembled what they did in the East China Sea, inside the exclusive economic zones of Japan and South Korea, as well as with other South China Sea claimants. However, the most surprising element of the report was that the authors’ government contacts and Jamestown’s own evinced little awareness of China’s activities. That Beijing’s testing of Taiwanese (and its allies) situational awareness seemingly went unnoticed strongly suggests the need for more intelligence. Taiwan’s naval
RSS