Tue, Sep 21, 2004 page8

• Editorial: No thaw likely until spring

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  The Chinese Communist Party's third generation leader Jiang Zemin (江澤民) resigned as chairman of the Central Military Commission at the Fourth Plenary Session of the party's Central Committee. This move put an end to his leadership and will enable his successor, Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), to take full control of the party, administration, and military. In his willingness to step down, Jiang avoided any bloody misfortunes like the Cultural Revolution and the Tiananmen Square massacre. This peaceful transfer of power in China was a relief to the international community.

  Does this mean that Hu's time has arrived? It is still too early to say.

  Hu's rise has been shrouded in mystery. When he took over the presidency and the position as party leader, international media could not pin down his political beliefs. Even though he had already wielded considerable power, he was careful not to impinge on Jiang's power. He did not pronounce his policies, probably because he was prudent. What he did was a likely necessary political calculation during a leadership change in an authoritarian regime.

  With Hu's replacement of Jiang, will there be a policy change? In the short term, Hu is unlikely to modify Jiang's policies too much. Beijing will continue to stay on good terms with the US. Not challenging Washington, it will however embrace policies that increase its presence and influence in the Asia-Pacific region and globally. Though Hu's proposal of "peaceful rising" for China was shot down by hawks like Jiang, the country's continued economic development will inevitably force Hu to downplay the intimidating force China represents. Hu's use of strategies is expected to be more flexible since he now does not need to worry as much about pressure from hawks in the military.

  Jiang has held power for over a decade and has been a dominant influence on cross-strait relations. "Jiang's eight points" are on a par with Deng Xiaoping's (鄧小平) "one country, two systems" as fundamental principles on which these relations are based. Now that Jiang has lost direct control over cross-strait politics, such hawkish posturing as the threat of invasion and "a timetable for unification" might be reined in. But China's policy to Taiwan will not change. China will continue to constrain Taiwan's freedom of movement on the international stage, and engage in the same verbal and military threats. Hu made clear in his speech at the Fourth Plenary Session that China is not suited to "Western-style" democracy, an indication that Hu has not departed from the authoritarian tendencies of communist party rule. Taiwan must not make the mistake of having unrealistic expectations of the new generation of leaders simply because Hu is younger and more flexible than Jiang.

  In the two years that Hu has been in power, he has focused primarily on battling corruption and building up the economy. While Hu will, in the short term, assess the results of the US presidential election and Taiwan's legislative election, he will certainly not depart from Jiang's Eight Points. This does not rule out a more active posture in developing cross-strait trade as a means of using commercial pressure to bring about unification. This is something that Taiwan needs to guard against.

  In his videoconference with the UN Correspondents Association last week, Chen sought to engage Hu in a dialogue. Taiwan recognizes that Hu is now established in power, but any thaw in the cross-strait relationship will probably have to wait till spring next year.
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