Since President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) re-election in March, the escalation of Beijing's rhetoric has reached worrying proportions. Its perilous assessment of the "Taiwan problem" is unlikely to change in the coming months: US-Taiwan relations continue to recover, and a pro-independence majority in the Taiwan legislature in December appears likely given a struggling opposition.
Nonetheless, as Beijing's leaders mull over their Taiwan policy, it needs to be kept in mind that there are powerful factors which are fundamentally opposed to Taiwan's independence. China's confidence in the US and the pan-blue camp to act as checks on Taiwan's independence movement has clearly waned. US support for Taiwan's defenses and its WHO drive has seriously shaken Beijing's trust in the US' sincerity in restraining independence forces. But graver still is the pan-blue camp's disarray. Its intense internal divisions, shaky leadership and inability to coordinate electoral strategies makes a pan-green majority in the Dec. 11 legislative election increasingly likely.
Even with pan-green legislature, three powerful obstacles still stand in the way of Taiwan's independence. First, the US has made clear its limited support for Taiwan's constitutional reform drive. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly was quoted as saying, should Taiwan's democratization efforts harm US and Taiwan's security interests, "we will say so clearly and bluntly." Washington has chosen a more direct approach with regard to its foreign policy but has been much more cautious with the signals it sends to Taipei. No matter how many weapons the US sells to Taiwan, it will not sacrifice peace and stability for the nation's democratic yearnings for independence.
The second factor is that constitutional reform is likely to be heavily contested. Chen's top aides have reiterated his vow to follow existing procedures which require amendments to receive three-quarters of the vote in both the Legislative Yuan and the National Assembly. Such a lop-sided majority for the pan-green camp is virtually impossible. The blue camp is divided, not broken, and will remain a major player in constitutional revisions even without control of the legislature.
The third factor involves the absence of a consensus in Taiwan in terms of sovereignty. Only a small minority of the population is passionate about independence. By Chen's own admission, there is no consensus on Taiwan's official status as the country remains deeply divided after the March election. A recent poll by Taiwan Business Weekly indicated that the Taiwan's people understand the risks of independence and the drafting of a new constitution, as well as the very real prospect of a cross-strait war. They are also not especially interested in martyrdom. With at best divided support for independence at home, any sovereignty related reforms are unlikely to pass.
Fortunately, the Chen administration appears to understand these impediments and has shown no sign of sidestepping them. Chen's pro-independence Cabinet has toed the moderate line he set down in his inaugural speech, and the nation's stability has become a central component of public policy. Dismissive claims that China is a mere "paper tiger" originate from the "deep-greens" such as former President Lee Tung-hui (
Whether cross-strait relations devolve into a confrontational spiral will depend on cooler strategic heads in Beijing.
Andrew Wei-chih Yang is a research assistant at the China Studies department of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
After more than three weeks since the Honduran elections took place, its National Electoral Council finally certified the new president of Honduras. During the campaign, the two leading contenders, Nasry Asfura and Salvador Nasralla, who according to the council were separated by 27,026 votes in the final tally, promised to restore diplomatic ties with Taiwan if elected. Nasralla refused to accept the result and said that he would challenge all the irregularities in court. However, with formal recognition from the US and rapid acknowledgment from key regional governments, including Argentina and Panama, a reversal of the results appears institutionally and politically
In 2009, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) made a welcome move to offer in-house contracts to all outsourced employees. It was a step forward for labor relations and the enterprise facing long-standing issues around outsourcing. TSMC founder Morris Chang (張忠謀) once said: “Anything that goes against basic values and principles must be reformed regardless of the cost — on this, there can be no compromise.” The quote is a testament to a core belief of the company’s culture: Injustices must be faced head-on and set right. If TSMC can be clear on its convictions, then should the Ministry of Education
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) provided several reasons for military drills it conducted in five zones around Taiwan on Monday and yesterday. The first was as a warning to “Taiwanese independence forces” to cease and desist. This is a consistent line from the Chinese authorities. The second was that the drills were aimed at “deterrence” of outside military intervention. Monday’s announcement of the drills was the first time that Beijing has publicly used the second reason for conducting such drills. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership is clearly rattled by “external forces” apparently consolidating around an intention to intervene. The targets of
China’s recent aggressive military posture around Taiwan simply reflects the truth that China is a millennium behind, as Kobe City Councilor Norihiro Uehata has commented. While democratic countries work for peace, prosperity and progress, authoritarian countries such as Russia and China only care about territorial expansion, superpower status and world dominance, while their people suffer. Two millennia ago, the ancient Chinese philosopher Mencius (孟子) would have advised Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) that “people are the most important, state is lesser, and the ruler is the least important.” In fact, the reverse order is causing the great depression in China right now,
RSS