China's government has not only ignored the conciliatory tone of President Chen Shui-bian's (
There have now been three presidential elections in Taiwan, and attempts by Beijing to influence the outcome of each have proven ineffective. The idea of "one country on either side of the strait" has become accepted among Taiwan's grassroots, and this year's election result has confirmed "Taiwanese consciousness" as the majority opinion. The conflict between Beijing and Taipei has therefore entered a new stage.
In Beijing, the Jiang Zemin (
The menacing aspect of those involved in Taiwan affairs and the official media is an indication of difficulties created by the struggle for succession. The harsh language used by the Taiwan Affairs Office, the People's Daily and Xinhua News Agency succeeds superficially in putting down Taiwan, but what it really indicates is that the realization of the Chinese people's dream of democratic reform is receding ever further into the distance.
Targeting the Chi Mei Group (
As China has overtaken the US as Taiwan's main export market, Taipei's political sensibilities are continually at the mercy of Beijing's maneuvering. But trade runs both ways, and capital's movement powerfully shapes interactions between nations. Given the degree to which China is dependant on Taiwanese businesses and the extent that multinational companies permeate their markets, the threats that Beijing has leveled against the Chi Mei Group are reminiscent of the actions of the Society of Harmonious Fists during the Boxer Revolution. While these threats indicate internal pressures within China's government, the ultimate result may impact upon that nation's financial structures, which are already rife with problems. If this slow-moving giant starts to wield his club, it is more likely that he will hit himself in the head rather than strike his more nimble opponent.
Yet this unwieldy club deters westward expansion by Taiwanese businesses. This helps the Chen administration, which wants to widen trade on an international basis. It has also given force to former President Lee Teng-hui's adherence to the insightful policy of "no haste, be patient" (
China's massive bureaucracy is corrupt and unprofessional. Its leaders must adopt macro-economic controls on investment to prevent a chain reaction that will bring down its financial system. But with its overdependence on foreign investment to fuel growth, China is being pulled in opposing directions.
A fundamental principle of political strategy is to "find the right pretext to wage war " (師出有名). Chen has a firm handle on the discourse of "peace," an issue that China, Taiwan, the US and other leading powers are all constrained to respect. Now that Taiwan has achieved a consensus about facing China's threats with docility, even as China chooses to play the club-wielding giant, the time of awakening has come for the international community.
As strategic tensions escalate across the vast Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan has emerged as more than a potential flashpoint. It is the fulcrum upon which the credibility of the evolving American-led strategy of integrated deterrence now rests. How the US and regional powers like Japan respond to Taiwan’s defense, and how credible the deterrent against Chinese aggression proves to be, will profoundly shape the Indo-Pacific security architecture for years to come. A successful defense of Taiwan through strengthened deterrence in the Indo-Pacific would enhance the credibility of the US-led alliance system and underpin America’s global preeminence, while a failure of integrated deterrence would
The Executive Yuan recently revised a page of its Web site on ethnic groups in Taiwan, replacing the term “Han” (漢族) with “the rest of the population.” The page, which was updated on March 24, describes the composition of Taiwan’s registered households as indigenous (2.5 percent), foreign origin (1.2 percent) and the rest of the population (96.2 percent). The change was picked up by a social media user and amplified by local media, sparking heated discussion over the weekend. The pan-blue and pro-China camp called it a politically motivated desinicization attempt to obscure the Han Chinese ethnicity of most Taiwanese.
On Wednesday last week, the Rossiyskaya Gazeta published an article by Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) asserting the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) territorial claim over Taiwan effective 1945, predicated upon instruments such as the 1943 Cairo Declaration and the 1945 Potsdam Proclamation. The article further contended that this de jure and de facto status was subsequently reaffirmed by UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs promptly issued a statement categorically repudiating these assertions. In addition to the reasons put forward by the ministry, I believe that China’s assertions are open to questions in international
The Legislative Yuan passed an amendment on Friday last week to add four national holidays and make Workers’ Day a national holiday for all sectors — a move referred to as “four plus one.” The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), who used their combined legislative majority to push the bill through its third reading, claim the holidays were chosen based on their inherent significance and social relevance. However, in passing the amendment, they have stuck to the traditional mindset of taking a holiday just for the sake of it, failing to make good use of
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