Tue, Jun 08, 2004 page8

• Editorial: Local bullying hurts China globally

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  China's government has not only ignored the conciliatory tone of President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) inauguration speech, but has recently started to target and harass pro-green Taiwan businesses in China. This is the result of a power struggle among the Chinese leadership and of China's need to slow growth and restructure the economy.

  There have now been three presidential elections in Taiwan, and attempts by Beijing to influence the outcome of each have proven ineffective. The idea of "one country on either side of the strait" has become accepted among Taiwan's grassroots, and this year's election result has confirmed "Taiwanese consciousness" as the majority opinion. The conflict between Beijing and Taipei has therefore entered a new stage.

  In Beijing, the Jiang Zemin (江澤民) camp and that of Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) and Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) are now at each other's throats. In order to ensure a smooth succession, the latter have been forced to discard their gentler tone toward the Taiwan question and to compete with Jiang in adopting a hardline position.

  The menacing aspect of those involved in Taiwan affairs and the official media is an indication of difficulties created by the struggle for succession. The harsh language used by the Taiwan Affairs Office, the People's Daily and Xinhua News Agency succeeds superficially in putting down Taiwan, but what it really indicates is that the realization of the Chinese people's dream of democratic reform is receding ever further into the distance.

  Targeting the Chi Mei Group (奇美集團) is another ploy in China's psychological war that is played out through the manipulation of political dogma and by singling out prominent figures. It is little different from the methods used by the Chinese imperial court in times past, in which one official would be executed to set an example for the rest.

  As China has overtaken the US as Taiwan's main export market, Taipei's political sensibilities are continually at the mercy of Beijing's maneuvering. But trade runs both ways, and capital's movement powerfully shapes interactions between nations. Given the degree to which China is dependant on Taiwanese businesses and the extent that multinational companies permeate their markets, the threats that Beijing has leveled against the Chi Mei Group are reminiscent of the actions of the Society of Harmonious Fists during the Boxer Revolution. While these threats indicate internal pressures within China's government, the ultimate result may impact upon that nation's financial structures, which are already rife with problems. If this slow-moving giant starts to wield his club, it is more likely that he will hit himself in the head rather than strike his more nimble opponent.

  Yet this unwieldy club deters westward expansion by Taiwanese businesses. This helps the Chen administration, which wants to widen trade on an international basis. It has also given force to former President Lee Teng-hui's adherence to the insightful policy of "no haste, be patient" (戒急用忍), and awoken the world to the dangers of investing in China, countering its recent image as an unstoppable economic juggernaut.

  China's massive bureaucracy is corrupt and unprofessional. Its leaders must adopt macro-economic controls on investment to prevent a chain reaction that will bring down its financial system. But with its overdependence on foreign investment to fuel growth, China is being pulled in opposing directions.

  A fundamental principle of political strategy is to "find the right pretext to wage war " (師出有名). Chen has a firm handle on the discourse of "peace," an issue that China, Taiwan, the US and other leading powers are all constrained to respect. Now that Taiwan has achieved a consensus about facing China's threats with docility, even as China chooses to play the club-wielding giant, the time of awakening has come for the international community.
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