It appears that Taiwan is for-ever at a crossroads. It is at a crossroads between strategic traffic of the North and South Pacific and between East and West as the US attempts to contain communism and China strives to become a great power.
Taiwan also is at a cross-roads between China's imperial ambition of unification and its own modern democratic demand for self-determination.
For the time being Taiwan is safe, as long as China is not yet "ready" and the US is "committed." Yet China can attack Taiwan under two circumstances. One out of desperation, the other after miscalculation.
Only time will tell whether China's low-key approach is in fact a more pragmatic approach.
Hence, Taiwan is racing against time. Which outcome will be the first to eventuate? China ready to act, or Taiwan building a defense system to meet this challenge?
The problem with Taiwan's defenses is not funding or talent. It has plenty of both. The problem is commitment.
With the pan-blue camp obstructing this commitment in psychological, political and budgetary terms, this commitment has been in doubt. However, with President Chen Shui-bian's (
Chen got it right with the referendum topics. Yet negotiation remains the best policy for all concerned.
Chen has appointed Academia Sinica President and Nobel laureate Lee Yuan-tseh (李遠哲) as an envoy to China. With luck, Lee might help Chen and Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) win their own peace prize if they can come to an agreement.
Their idea might be to make Taiwan a "Switzerland of the East," a non-partisan territory open to all who need passage, but which takes no sides.
This would avoid Taiwan becoming a battleground for regional conflicts, and would add to its viability in the eyes of the US, Japan, China and the UN.
Does the new generation of Chinese leaders have the wisdom to see sense and join with Taiwan's leaders in this project? Or will it insist on leading the region into catastrophe?
Chen Ming-chung
Chicago, Illinois
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