A local think tank yesterday revised its forecast for the nation’s GDP to a fall of 4.6 percent this year, citing warmer trade with China, although the figure is the lowest among all domestic institutes.
Polaris Research Institute (寶華綜合經濟研究院), which predicted in March the economy would contract 4.8 percent, said yesterday rush orders from China were stronger than expected and would buffer the impact of the global slump.
“The economy, which dropped 10.24 percent in the first quarter, saw a rebound this quarter, owing to rush orders from China that curbed the freefall in exports,” Liang Kuo-yuan (梁國源), president of the Taipei-based institute, told a media briefing.
The institute expects GDP to decline 8.04 percent and 3.58 percent in the second and third quarters respectively, and recover to 3.87 percent growth in the fourth quarter.
The main problem will be private investment, predicted to plunge 29.78 percent.
Exports, the main driver of economic growth in recent years, are expected to weaken 12 percent, compared with the 15 percent estimate three months ago, the report said.
While the pace of deterioration in exports slowed, the magnitude remains serious, Liang said, predicting that the central bank would maintain its loose monetary policy and leave interest rates at their current low levels.
“A rate hike now is too early,” Liang said. “The rising crude oil cost is out of tune with the world economy.”
The top monetary regulator is due to convene its quarterly board meeting and adjust interest rates, if necessary, on Thursday.
Liang said that recovery in Taiwan would have to wait until the world economy heals were it not for China’s intervention.
Because of political factors, Chinese orders for consumer electronic products come to Taiwan instead of South Korea, Liang said, adding that Chinese tourists to Taiwan also increased noticeably in recent months because of encouragement from Beijing.
Liang predicted the local currency would trade at an average NT$33.4 against the greenback.
“While improving cross-strait ties are favorable for the NT dollar, the demand for the US currency will not disappear,” the economist said. “The room for the NT dollar to fluctuate either way is limited.”
The institute expected consumer prices to sink 0.78 percent this year, saying that retailers will keep prices down to stimulate private consumption amid the recession.
Quanta Computer Inc (廣達) chairman Barry Lam (林百里) is expected to share his views about the artificial intelligence (AI) industry’s prospects during his speech at the company’s 37th anniversary ceremony, as AI servers have become a new growth engine for the equipment manufacturing service provider. Lam’s speech is much anticipated, as Quanta has risen as one of the world’s major AI server suppliers. The company reported a 30 percent year-on-year growth in consolidated revenue to NT$1.41 trillion (US$43.35 billion) last year, thanks to fast-growing demand for servers, especially those with AI capabilities. The company told investors in November last year that
Intel Corp has named Tasha Chuang (莊蓓瑜) to lead Intel Taiwan in a bid to reinforce relations between the company and its Taiwanese partners. The appointment of Chuang as general manager for Intel Taiwan takes effect on Thursday, the firm said in a statement yesterday. Chuang is to lead her team in Taiwan to pursue product development and sales growth in an effort to reinforce the company’s ties with its partners and clients, Intel said. Chuang was previously in charge of managing Intel’s ties with leading Taiwanese PC brand Asustek Computer Inc (華碩), which included helping Asustek strengthen its global businesses, the company
Taiwanese suppliers to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC, 台積電) are expected to follow the contract chipmaker’s step to invest in the US, but their relocation may be seven to eight years away, Minister of Economic Affairs J.W. Kuo (郭智輝) said yesterday. When asked by opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Niu Hsu-ting (牛煦庭) in the legislature about growing concerns that TSMC’s huge investments in the US will prompt its suppliers to follow suit, Kuo said based on the chipmaker’s current limited production volume, it is unlikely to lead its supply chain to go there for now. “Unless TSMC completes its planned six
Power supply and electronic components maker Delta Electronics Inc (台達電) yesterday said it plans to ship its new 1 megawatt charging systems for electric trucks and buses in the first half of next year at the earliest. The new charging piles, which deliver up to 1 megawatt of charging power, are designed for heavy-duty electric vehicles, and support a maximum current of 1,500 amperes and output of 1,250 volts, Delta said in a news release. “If everything goes smoothly, we could begin shipping those new charging systems as early as in the first half of next year,” a company official said. The new
RSS