Exports grew 11.8 percent year-on-year last month to reach the third-highest monthly record of US$21.85 billion, the Ministry of Finance said yesterday.
The ministry attributed the rising shipments to surging demands from ASEAN members and the "greater China" region.
Imports climbed 2.8 percent to US$17.59 billion last month, which created a trade surplus of US$4.25 billion, up 75.4 percent from a year earlier, the ministry's statistics showed.
Accumulative exports in the first 11 months reached an all-time high of US$223.25 billion, or a 9.2 percent growth from the same period last year. The ministry predicts exports may add another US$1 billion this month.
"We are optimistic that the full year growth in exports will be better than the 8.5 percent growth forecast by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics," said Lee Li-shu (李麗雪), director of the ministry's Statistics Department. "Although we are unlikely to see a double digit growth this year."
The latest trade figures, however, were lower than economists forecast.
Citigroup economists predicted a 12.6 percent increase in exports for last month and a 13.3 percent rise on imports for the same month, the US brokerage said in a note to its clients yesterday.
While a stronger than expected trade surplus for last month (due to a much-weaker imports performance) could make a positive contribution to fourth-quarter GDP growth, Citigroup economists are not upbeat about the nation's future exports growth heading into next year.
The Citigroup investment note, written by economists Cheng Cheng-mount (鄭貞茂) and Renee Chen (
UBS Investment Research economist Sean Yokota also said in its 2008 Outlook report released yesterday that "Taiwan's exports are close to the cyclical peak and leading indicators have already started to turn downwards."
Exports to the US and Japan have been slowing and this will continue into next year, he wrote.
He said demand from Europe and China has been a major support to the nation's exports this year, but exports to Europe are likely to fall from the current levels of 12 percent year-on-year to below 5 percent.
Exports to China need to accelerate, he said, a situation that UBS feels is unlikely.
"Hence we see net exports as the main reason for slower growth in 2008," Yokota wrote, adding that economic growth will only be 3.9 percent next year, down from a 5.1 percent estimate this year.
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