Crude oil rallied for the first time in four days on speculation that OPEC and non-OPEC producers might reach agreement on supply cutbacks this weekend, about two weeks earlier than previously expected.
OPEC has said it will only implement a reduction of 1.5 million barrels, or 6.5 percent, if other producers pare an additional 500,000. Norway, the second-largest non-OPEC exporter after Russia, had said it might not announce its reduction until Dec. 25.
"No one wants to be short over the weekend when there's the possibility we'll get an OPEC, non-OPEC announcement," said Phil Flynn, vice president and senior market analyst at Alaron Trading Corp in Chicago. "We have seen what that can do to the market."
Crude oil for January delivery rose US$0.50, or 2.7 percent, to US$19.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell 2.1 percent this week and are down 35 percent from a year ago.
In London, Brent crude oil for January settlement rose US$0.64, or 3.5 percent, to US$19.03 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.
Prices also rose on expectations that a nationwide strike in Venezuela tomorrow might hurt oil production and exports.
OPEC and Norwegian officials haven't given any indication that an agreement is probable this weekend. Oil prices fell earlier this week, and earlier today, on skepticism that world exporters would reduce supplies by the amount that OPEC says is needed to boost prices.
Non-OPEC producers are unlikely to reach the combined cutback goal of 500,000 barrels a day unless Norway agrees to cut supplies by more than Russia's promised 150,000 barrels a day, according to analysts, who say Norway probably will not cut more than Russia.
"OPEC is trying to manipulate the non-OPEC numbers to make it add up to half a million," and thus trigger its own cutbacks, said Nauman Barakat, vice president of global energy trading at ABN Amro Inc in New York. "There are a lot of loose ends."
A US government report revising lower an estimate for oil demand growth next year helped weaken prices this week.
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