BRICS leaders are to meet in Rio de Janeiro from today, with the bloc depleted by the absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), who is skipping the annual summit of emerging economies for the first time in 12 years.
The grouping meets as its members face imminent and costly tariff wars with the US.
Conceived two decades ago as a forum for fast-growing economies, the BRICS have come to be dominated by Beijing, which grew much faster and larger than the rest.
Photo: AFP
China has not said why Xi would miss the summit, a first since he became president in 2013.
“I expect there will be speculation about the reasons for Xi’s absence,” said Ryan Hass, a former China director at the US National Security Council who is now with the Brookings Institution think tank.
“The simplest explanation may hold the most explanatory power. Xi recently hosted Lula in Beijing,” Has said.
The Chinese leader would not be the only notable absentee. War crime-indicted Russian President Vladimir Putin is also opting to stay away, but would participate via video link, according to the Kremlin.
So too would Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose nation is still reeling from a 12-day conflict with Israel.
Putin’s non-attendance and the fact that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is to be a guest of honor in Brazil could also be factors in Xi’s absence, Hass said.
“Xi does not want to appear upstaged by Modi,” who would receive a state lunch, he said. “I expect Xi’s decision to delegate attendance to [Chinese] Premier Li [Qiang, 李強] rests amidst these factors.”
Still, the Xi no-show is a blow to host Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who wants Brazil to play a bigger role on the world stage.
In the year to November, Brazil would have hosted a G20 summit, a BRICS summit, and COP30 international climate talks, all before heading into fiercely contested presidential elections next year.
Lula is expected to run again for an unprecedented fourth term in office.
For BRICS leaders who do make the trip to the cidade maravilhosa — the marvelous city — the economy would be top of the agenda.
Lula on Friday defended the idea of finding an alternative to the dollar for trade among BRICS nations.
“I know it is complicated. There are political problems,” Lula said at a BRICS banking event. “But if we do not find a new formula, we are going to finish the 21st century the way we started the 20th.”
However, with many, including China, locked in difficult trade negotiations with the US, they might be wary of roiling the mercurial US president.
US President Donald Trump has warned that starting tomorrow, countries would receive letters stating the amount their exports to the US would be tariffed.
He has also threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on countries that challenge the US dollar’s international dominance.
“We’re anticipating a summit with a cautious tone: it will be difficult to mention the United States by name in the final declaration,” said Marta Fernandez, director of the BRICS Policy Center at Rio’s Pontifical Catholic University.
This is particularly the case for China, she said: “This doesn’t seem to be the right time to provoke further friction” between the world’s two leading economies.
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