It turns out that looming collision between our Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies might not happen after all.
Astronomers on Monday said that the probability of the two spiral galaxies colliding is less than previously thought, with a 50-50 chance within the next 10 billion years. That is essentially a coin flip, but still better odds than previous estimates and farther out in time.
“As it stands, proclamations of the impending demise of our galaxy seem greatly exaggerated,” the Finnish-led team wrote in a study appearing in Nature Astronomy.
Photo: Reuters
While good news for the Milky Way galaxy, the latest forecast might be moot for humanity.
“We likely won’t live to see the benefit,” lead author Till Sawala of the University of Helsinki said in an e-mail.
Already more than 4.5 billion years old, the sun is on course to run out of energy and die in another 5 billion years or so, but not before becoming so big it would engulf Mercury, Venus and possibly Earth. Even if it does not swallow Earth, the home planet would be left a burnt ball, its oceans long since boiled away.
Sawala’s international team relied on the latest observations by NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency’s Gaia star-surveying spacecraft to simulate the possible scenarios facing the Milky Way and next-door neighbor Andromeda.
Both already collided with other galaxies in their ancient past and, according to many, seemed destined for a head-on crash.
Past theories put a collision between the two — resulting in a new elliptical galaxy dubbed Milkomeda — as probable if not inevitable. Some predictions had that happening within 5 billion years, if not sooner.
For this new study, the scientists relied on updated galaxy measurements to factor in the gravitational pull on the Milky Way’s movement through the universe. They found that the effects of the neighboring Triangulum galaxy increased the likelihood of a merger between the Milky Way and Andromeda, while the Large Magellanic Cloud decreased those chances.
Despite lingering uncertainty over the position, motion and mass of all these galaxies, the scientists ended up with 50-50 odds of a collision within the next 10 billion years.
“The fate of our Milky Way galaxy is a subject of broad interest — not just to astronomers,” said Raja GuhaThakurta of the University of California, Santa Cruz, who was not involved in the study,
A full-on collision would transform our home galaxy from a disk of stars seen as a milky band of diffuse light across the sky into a milky blob, he said.
A harmless flyby of the two galaxies could leave this stellar disk largely undisturbed, thus preserving our galaxy’s name.
More work is needed before the Milky Way’s fate can be predicted with accuracy, the researchers said. Further insight should help scientists better understand what is happening among galaxies even deeper in the cosmos.
While our galaxy’s fate remains highly uncertain, the sun’s future is “pretty much sealed,” Sawala said.
“Of course, there is also a very significant chance that humanity will bring an end to itself still much before that, without any need for astrophysical help,” he said.
The collapse of the Swiss Birch glacier serves as a chilling warning of the escalating dangers faced by communities worldwide living under the shadow of fragile ice, particularly in Asia, experts said. Footage of the collapse on Wednesday showed a huge cloud of ice and rubble hurtling down the mountainside into the hamlet of Blatten. Swiss Development Cooperation disaster risk reduction adviser Ali Neumann said that while the role of climate change in the case of Blatten “still needs to be investigated,” the wider impacts were clear on the cryosphere — the part of the world covered by frozen water. “Climate change and
Poland is set to hold a presidential runoff election today between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the country’s future. The winner would succeed Polish President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is finishing his second and final term. The outcome would determine whether Poland embraces a nationalist populist trajectory or pivots more fully toward liberal, pro-European policies. An exit poll by Ipsos would be released when polls close today at 9pm local time, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Final results are expected tomorrow. Whoever wins can be expected to either help or hinder the
DENIAL: Musk said that the ‘New York Times was lying their ass off,’ after it reported he used so much drugs that he developed bladder problems Elon Musk on Saturday denied a report that he used ketamine and other drugs extensively last year on the US presidential campaign trail. The New York Times on Friday reported that the billionaire adviser to US President Donald Trump used so much ketamine, a powerful anesthetic, that he developed bladder problems. The newspaper said the world’s richest person also took ecstasy and mushrooms, and traveled with a pill box last year, adding that it was not known whether Musk also took drugs while heading the so-called US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) after Trump took power in January. In a
It turns out that looming collision between our Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies might not happen after all. Astronomers on Monday said that the probability of the two spiral galaxies colliding is less than previously thought, with a 50-50 chance within the next 10 billion years. That is essentially a coin flip, but still better odds than previous estimates and farther out in time. “As it stands, proclamations of the impending demise of our galaxy seem greatly exaggerated,” the Finnish-led team wrote in a study appearing in Nature Astronomy. While good news for the Milky Way galaxy, the latest forecast might be moot