Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka has spent decades uncovering Russian spy networks, sabotage attempts and disinformation campaigns against Europe.
Speaking in an interview from a high-security compound on the outskirts of Prague, he is now warning allies that pushing Kyiv to accept significant concessions to end the war in Ukraine would only embolden the Kremlin.
“Russia would spend perhaps the next 10 to 15 years recovering from its huge human and economic losses and preparing for the next target, which is central and eastern Europe,” said Koudelka, a major general who heads the country’s Security Information Service.
Photo: AP
“If Ukraine loses, or is forced to accept a bad peace deal, then Russia will perceive that as victory,” he added.
His assessment is backed up by other European intelligence services. Germany’s top spy, Bruno Kahl, last month warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be prepared for a military engagement with NATO by the end of the decade.
Koudelka said that international law requires Russia to withdraw all troops, return occupied or annexed territories and pay reparations. Kyiv has recently come under pressure to consider new ways to lure Putin to negotiating table after 1,000 days resisting the invasion.
A former Soviet satellite, the Czech Republic is a staunch supporter of Ukraine, hosting hundreds of thousands of war refugees and organizing shipments of donated ammunition.
Together with Poland, as well as the Baltic and Scandinavian countries, it is trying to persuade other allies to keep arming the war-torn nation, despite waning public support and battlefield setbacks.
The 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine should remind Western nations that Russia is “an imperial superpower with imperial desires” and has “absolute disdain” for its military losses and civilian deaths, Koudelka said.
Since he became the intelligence chief eight years ago, the Czech Republic has taken drastic steps to reduce Russian intelligence capabilities and influence over local politics and business. It has banned Russian suppliers from a nuclear-energy project, reduced dependence on its natural gas and expelled a vast majority of the Kremlin’s spies with diplomatic cover.
Unlike some other European nations, the government in Prague has taken steps to make it harder for Russians to visit the country, own businesses or properties there, and obtain Czech citizenship. It is now trying to persuade the EU to ban Russian diplomats from traveling between member states without visas, as a way to further curb intelligence activity.
Still, Koudelka said his country remains a target for Russian hybrid warfare, including traditional spying, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and subversion. The intelligence community across Europe is also preparing for likely threats after the war ends, such as an influx of Ukrainian veterans and the smuggling of arms that could end up in the wrong hands.
The 59-year-old lifelong counterterrorism and counterintelligence officer dismissed concerns in Europe that the incoming administration of US president-elect Donald Trump might weaken the security and intelligence cooperation between the US and Europe.
“I worked with our American partners under President Trump before and it was really great,” Koudelka said, pointing to his experience with intelligence sharing under previous administration. “The same is true now under President [Joe} Biden. And I am 100 percent convinced that it will be equally great during Trump’s second term.”
Koudelka called on Western nations to avoid exposing themselves to fresh security threats and economic dependencies when they resume business and diplomatic relations with Russia in the future.
He added that Russia was an “aggressor who only understands strength” and the outcome of the war would determine the likelihood of a future global conflict directly involving NATO.
“If facing a strong country or a strong alliance, Russia will make the calculation that it isn’t worth messing with it,” he said. “If, by contrast, Russia concludes that the war in Ukraine has paid off, and that European countries are weak and NATO lacks unity, then it may try something new.”
BACKLASH: The National Party quit its decades-long partnership with the Liberal Party after their election loss to center-left Labor, which won a historic third term Australia’s National Party has split from its conservative coalition partner of more than 60 years, the Liberal Party, citing policy differences over renewable energy and after a resounding loss at a national election this month. “Its time to have a break,” Nationals leader David Littleproud told reporters yesterday. The split shows the pressure on Australia’s conservative parties after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s center-left Labor party won a historic second term in the May 3 election, powered by a voter backlash against US President Donald Trump’s policies. Under the long-standing partnership in state and federal politics, the Liberal and National coalition had shared power
NO EXCUSES: Marcos said his administration was acting on voters’ demands, but an academic said the move was emotionally motivated after a poor midterm showing Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr yesterday sought the resignation of all his Cabinet secretaries, in a move seen as an attempt to reset the political agenda and assert his authority over the second half of his single six-year term. The order came after the president’s allies failed to win a majority of Senate seats contested in the 12 polls on Monday last week, leaving Marcos facing a divided political and legislative landscape that could thwart his attempts to have an ally succeed him in 2028. “He’s talking to the people, trying to salvage whatever political capital he has left. I think it’s
CONTROVERSY: During the performance of Israel’s entrant Yuval Raphael’s song ‘New Day Will Rise,’ loud whistles were heard and two people tried to get on stage Austria’s JJ yesterday won the Eurovision Song Contest, with his operatic song Wasted Love triumphing at the world’s biggest live music television event. After votes from national juries around Europe and viewers from across the continent and beyond, JJ gave Austria its first victory since bearded drag performer Conchita Wurst’s 2014 triumph. After the nail-biting drama as the votes were revealed running into yesterday morning, Austria finished with 436 points, ahead of Israel — whose participation drew protests — on 357 and Estonia on 356. “Thank you to you, Europe, for making my dreams come true,” 24-year-old countertenor JJ, whose
Polish presidential candidates offered different visions of Poland and its relations with Ukraine in a televised debate ahead of next week’s run-off, which remains on a knife-edge. During a head-to-head debate lasting two hours, centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s governing pro-European coalition, faced the Eurosceptic historian Karol Nawrocki, backed by the right-wing populist Law and Justice party (PiS). The two candidates, who qualified for the second round after coming in the top two places in the first vote on Sunday last week, clashed over Poland’s relations with Ukraine, EU policy and the track records of their
RSS