US spies believe China’s leaders see little or no upside to the looming electoral showdown between US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump.
Ahead of next week’s first debate of the US presidential campaign, the country’s intelligence agencies assess that China has no clear preference between the two candidates, said US officials, who asked not to be identified discussing nonpublic assessments.
The conclusion suggests that officials in Beijing, like their counterparts in Washington, believe that ties between the world’s two largest economies would continue on their long-term downward trajectory despite a recent increase in high-level meetings billed as efforts to manage differences. Over the past few years, the two countries have clashed over everything from technology to human rights and the South China Sea.
Photo: Reuters
The US assessment of China’s stance on the presidential contest is matched in interviews with Chinese officials, who also spoke on condition of anonymity. They said the view in Beijing is that both candidates are intent on containing China and disrupting its rise.
“Neither is a perfect candidate to put it mildly,” said Gao Zhikai (高志凱), a former Chinese diplomat who served as translator to the late leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平).
“Biden is a Cold War warrior, who doesn’t care if he pushes the world into conflict, while Trump will probably impose sanctions and tariffs on China in pursuit of his America-first agenda,” Gao said.
Spokespeople for the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on intelligence assessments of how China views the US presidential election.
Liu Pengyu (劉鵬宇), spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said China does not comment on “US domestic affairs.”
A second Trump administration could pose significant problems for Beijing.
In his first term, Trump declared a trade war on China, increased high-level ties with Taiwan and oversaw a reorientation of US military strategy to counter Beijing. By the end of his time in office, it was routine for officials in both Beijing and Washington to refer in private to ties between the nations as a new Cold War.
Chinese officials believe that a second Trump administration would likely be characterized by provocative pronouncements, unpredictable policymaking and a renewed push for anti-China measures, US and Chinese officials said.
During Trump’s campaign, he has already floated the idea of 60 percent tariffs on Chinese-made goods.
Liu said that raising tariffs on Chinese goods would drive up the cost of goods, “inflicting more loss on American companies and consumers” while damaging global supply chains.
Chinese officials believe that the flip side of these concerns is that a Trump presidency could weaken Washington’s ties with its allies, opening opportunities for Beijing.
Trump’s first term in office was characterized by repeated friction with European allies over defense spending, as well as periodic complaints about the cost of the protection the US affords Japan and South Korea.
However, the prospect of a second Biden term offers little comfort to Beijing.
The central concern for Chinese policymakers would be Biden’s likely push to strengthen regional partnerships to push back against Chinese assertiveness, US and Chinese officials said.
Over the past four years, China has routinely denounced groups such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue comprised of the US, Australia, India and Japan, and AUKUS, a defense pact among Australia, the UK and the US, as efforts to contain China.
At a recent defense forum in Singapore, a Chinese delegate accused the US of attempting to build an Asian NATO.
At the same time, Biden “needs to pay more attention to the views of its allies, which are likely to call for caution and moderation. This may be good for China,” Jia Qingguo (賈慶國), a professor of international relations and a Chinese national political adviser, said in an interview this month.
Liu said the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy “is essentially about division, confrontation and detrimental to peace” and that its aim is to “encircle China.”
No matter who prevails in the November election, officials in Washington and Beijing are girding for more tense periods.
“From the Chinese perspective, we just need to sit tight,” Gao said. “Whoever wins, China needs to deal with them as they are, rather than hoping for the unrealistic.”
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