Truck driver Yuichi Tomita has been delivering packages all over Japan for two decades, often clocking 40 straight hours on the road.
The work is tough, but a source of pride, he said, adding that he has never thought of quitting — until now.
On April 1 next year, the Japanese government would limit truck drivers’ annual overtime to 960 hours, along with other reforms officials have said are meant to improve the job’s notoriously grueling conditions and make it more attractive.
Photo: REUTERS
However, the law would instead lead to an exodus from an occupation that requires most people to work extra hours to pay bills, Tomita said.
That has sparked fears of what those in retail and logistics call the “2024 crisis” — a critical shortage of truck drivers that, if unaddressed, could leave one-third of all cargo undelivered and result in a potential ￥10 trillion (US$75.8 billion) hit to the world’s third-largest economy by 2030..
“I’ve been doing this job for 20 years and you just can’t make ends meet on base pay alone,” said Tomita, a second-generation trucker and father of a three-year-old. “I really think this crisis is going to threaten Japan’s economy and families like ours.”
Drivers make ￥4.46 million per year on average. That is about 10 percent below the average for all industries despite working 20 percent longer hours.
An expected drop-off in the number of truck drivers would set off a domino effect for farmers, shops and diners accustomed to next-day delivery of fresh fish and produce.
The global consultancy Roland Berger expects a 20 percent decline in the number of Japanese truck drivers in the decade to 2030.
“Simply put, people in Tokyo will have no means to get fresh vegetables or fish from Kyushu [in southern Japan] and other far-off regions,” Roland Berger partner Masashi Onozuka said. “That could affect consumer spending and other areas too.”
About 98 percent of Japan’s 62,000 trucking companies — responsible for delivering almost all of the country’s cargo — are small operations. Fierce competition and high fuel prices mean truck drivers are squeezed despite an acute labor shortage.
A recent government survey showed trucking companies were able to pass on only 19 percent of their cost increases, compared with 47 percent for small and medium-sized firms. That would make it difficult for small companies to hire to make up for the lower number of legal working hours per driver.
Underscoring the difficulties smaller players face, the Fair Trade Commission in December last year named 13 firms that it said abused their superior bargaining power to refuse price increase requests from smaller contractors and suppliers.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last month instructed his Cabinet to come up with “drastic” measures by June to address the crisis. A dedicated lane on a 100km stretch of highway connecting Tokyo and Nagoya for self-driving trucks and a flight route for delivery drones are planned for the next fiscal year.
Some retailers have devised ways to soften the impact. Convenience store operator Lawson would reduce deliveries of lunch boxes to twice a day from three times for all outlets by April next year. Supermarket chain operators Summit, Maruetsu, Yaoko and Life Corp agreed to allow an extra day for delivery and reduce overnight shipping.
However, many far-flung producers have no plan. Farmers and fish wholesalers from Kyushu to the northernmost island of Hokkaido fear for their livelihood and local economies if there are not enough drivers.
The town of Uwajima on the western island of Shikoku could wither without trucks to deliver its amberjack by 2am to Tokyo’s main fish market, Ehime Fishers Cooperative official Masaaki Iwamori said.
“If the fish aren’t ready in time, they lose their freshness when they’re auctioned the next day” at a significant discount, he said. “Maybe once consumers start noticing the drop in quality, they’ll share the sense of crisis.”
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