British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s success in securing a new settlement for Northern Ireland with the EU has killed off any lingering prospects of a return to power by Boris Johnson, members of the Conservative Party said.
In the run-up to Sunak’s announcement of the deal on Monday, Johnson had refused to back his efforts, instead pointing to legislation he proposed as prime minister as the “best way forward” to resolve the post-Brexit standoff.
However, so far, Sunak’s agreement has been well-received by Conservative members of parliament, including some ardent Brexiteers.
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Now, the former prime minister’s stock has never been lower in the parliamentary party, Conservative lawmakers said on Wednesday.
One joked that it is time to sell stocks in Johnson, while another said any comeback is now dead in the water. The lawmakers requested anonymity talking about internal party dynamics.
It is a remarkable reversal in Johnson’s fortunes. Less than 18 months ago, his backers were speculating about a decade in power. In October last year, just seven weeks after leaving office, he secured the nominations of 110 Conservative lawmakers in the race to succeed Liz Truss as prime minister, enough to put him in a run-off against Sunak if he had decided to continue.
Even last week, his backers were still trying to talk up the possibility of Johnson swooping in to lead the ruling party into the next general election if the Conservatives perform badly at local polls in May.
Supporters of Johnson have pointed to his personal appeal and the fact he delivered the party an 80-seat majority in 2019 as reasons to consider reinstating him as the Conservatives slide toward electoral defeat.
Sunak must call a vote by January 2025 at the latest, and his party trails the Labour Party by more than 20 points in most recent polls.
However, speculation around a comeback has all but vanished in the wake of the deal on trading arrangements announced on Monday by Sunak alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
One minister said Johnson could have commanded some support from the pro-Brexit wing of the Conservatives had he been in parliament on Monday when Sunak set out his plans to the House of Commons.
Johnson could have owned the moment and claim he paved the way for the deal. Instead he skulked away, the minister said.
An ally of Johnson said he was still making up his mind how to respond to the deal.
A second minister said if Johnson rejects Sunak’s deal, he would have to align himself with a minority grouping of Conservative lawmakers in the European Research Group who are considering whether to back the prime minister.
Those lawmakers no longer reflect anything like mainstream thinking in the party, the minister said, so Johnson would be making a mistake to do so.
Johnson works best when the battalions are massed for him, the minister said.
The European Research Group is no longer the battalion it once was at the height of the parliamentary Brexit battles; more like the army catering corps, the minister joked.
However, Johnson’s supporters have not given up, with some predicting he might lead the party again if Sunak loses the election to the Labour Party.
The Johnson ally said the former prime minister still commands significant support in the parliamentary party, especially as he delivered on his manifesto pledge of getting Brexit done.
The debates about the EU divorce are not over yet and Sunak must deliver on reducing inflation, equalizing opportunities nationwide and halting illegal immigration if he is to maintain the support of lawmakers, the ally said.
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