Angolans yesterday voted in a tight race in which the main opposition coalition has its best-ever chance of victory, as millions of youth left out of its oil-fueled booms are expected to express frustration with nearly five decades of rule by the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA).
The ruling party remains favorite, though the margin is narrow enough for a surprise victory by the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), which could shift relations with global superpowers — with possibly less friendly ties with Russia.
Since independence from Portugal in 1975, Angola has been run by the MPLA, led since 2017 by Angolan President Joao Lourenco.
Photo: AFP
However, an Afrobarometer survey in May showed the UNITA opposition coalition, led by Adalberto Costa Junior, increasing its share to 22 percent, from 13 percent in 2019. That is still 7 points behind the MPLA, but nearly half of voters were undecided. Many young people — under 25s make up 60 percent of the country — are voting for the first time.
“I hope this election brings a bit of change, because the country is not good as it is,” Goncalo Junior Maneco, a 25-year-old electrician, said as he waited to vote at a polling station in Lusiada University in the capital, Luanda.
Lourenco, who is seeking re-election, voted early in the morning at the same polling station surrounded by heavy security.
“We have just exercised our right to vote. It’s fast and simple. We advise all eligible citizens to do the same. In the end, we will all win, democracy wins and Angola wins,” Lourenco told reporters.
In a tense run-up to the presidential and parliamentary vote, UNITA urged voters to stay near polling stations after voting to reduce the risk of fraud.
Tweaked vote-counting rules might delay official results by days, analysts said, raising tensions that some fear might boil over into violence.
“I hope it [the election] takes place in a peaceful and tranquil environment,” said Adriano Francisco, 49, as he lined up to vote.
A high turnout is expected to favor the MPLA, whereas a low turnout might be a boon for UNITA, said Eurasia Group, a consultancy.
A UNITA victory could weaken decades of close ties with Moscow, for whom the MPLA was a Cold War proxy during Angola’s 27-year civil war ending in 2002, while UNITA was US-backed.
UNITA condemned “the invasion of Ukraine by Russia,” Costa Junior wrote on Twitter.
He also traveled to Brussels and Washington to build ties with Western partners before elections.
Russian Ambassador to Angola Vladimir Tararov was quoted in Angolan press in March as praising the country for its neutrality while lambasting UNITA for wanting to show it “stands with the West, the so-called civilized countries.”
Lourenco has also opened up to the West since his election in 2017, but in March Angola abstained from supporting a UN resolution that condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“It is highly possible that a UNITA win would mean a distancing of Angola from Russia,” said Charles Ray, head of the Africa Programme at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, but only if it could consolidate power over a pro-Russian military first.
Lourenco has tried to improve relations with Washington, and just before the elections applied to join a trade agreement with the EU and southern African states, which has been in force since 2016. Talks start in months.
Asked about this shift in stance, Costa Junior said over the weekend: “The image [Lourenco] built to the outside world is disappearing.”
Lourenco was “successful in terms of international relations,” but that had not achieved positive consequences for Angolans, said Ricardo Soares de Oliveira, professor of African Politics at the University of Oxford.
Lourenco has also pledged to continue economic reforms, including privatization and encouraging the non-oil sector.
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