Benigno Aquino’s convincing performance in this week’s Philippine presidential poll point to a smooth transition over the next six weeks, but the outgoing administration could cause some headaches.
Aquino has said he is ready to govern, but has not directly claimed the presidency. He is setting up a committee to look at cabinet posts, with investors waiting on his choices for key economic and finance positions for signals on policy direction.
The relatively smooth election process and the emergence of a clear winner with market-friendly credentials is seen as a positive development for improving long-term investor perception.
However, the speed with which the result has become known has created something of a void. Official results are not likely until next month, and second-placed Joseph Estrada will not concede until then.
“His victory has some good things going for him, firstly credibility and legitimacy will not be questioned,” said Benito Lim, a political science professor at Ateneo de Manila University.
But until June 30, the government he vowed to investigate is in control. President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo promised a smooth transition, but this week’s appointment of a former chief of staff as Chief Justice has cast some doubt on that.
“It will test Aquino’s resolve to undo Arroyo’s last-minute deals and appointments and to prosecute Arroyo,” said Elmer Labog, head of the labor group KMU.
Aquino said the appointment of Renato Corona was inappropriate and asked Arroyo not to create more problems for the next administration, prompting a rebuke from the government.
“I think whoever becomes president will make sure that the constitution will have to be respected, because if the new leader decides to set aside what is clearly written in the constitution, this could be a serious violation and an impeachable offense,” presidential spokesman Ricardo Saludo told reporters.
Results will not be officially declared until Congress sits from the end of this month, although Aquino’s lead looks insurmountable. While the election commission Comelec has stopped releasing figures, some local media have access to its raw data.
ABS-CBN television said its calculations showed Aquino had 14.01 million votes, or 42 percent of 33.28 million votes counted. Estrada was in second place with 8.86 million votes, or 26.6 percent of the vote. Around 5 million votes remain to be counted, based on a estimate of 75 percent voter turnout.
While the election process and outcome has been well received, ratings agencies have said that on its own, it does not change the immediate outlook on the Philippines. More important are efforts to cut a deficit nearing 300 billion pesos (US$6.6 billion) and broaden the tax base.
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