The dispute over Thailand and Cambodia’s contested border, which dates back more than a century to disagreements over colonial-era maps, has broken into conflict before. However, the most recent clashes, which erupted on Thursday, have been fueled by another factor: a bitter feud between two powerful political patriarchs.
Cambodian Senate President and former prime minister Hun Sen, 72, and former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, 76, were once such close friends that they reportedly called one another brothers. Hun Sen has, over the years, supported Thaksin’s family during their long-running power struggle with Thailand’s military. Thaksin and his sister Yingluck stayed at Hun Sen’s home after they were ousted from power, while Hun Sen appointed Thaksin an economic adviser to the Cambodian government.
Thaksin frequently visited Cambodia, and Hun Sen was the first foreign guest to see the former Thai leader after he returned home after more than 15 years in self-imposed exile.
Photo: EPA
However, relations have broken down spectacularly over recent months. The exact reasons for their feud are unclear, but analysts say it has created an additional layer of volatility that is exacerbating deadly clashes on the neighboring countries’ border.
Hun Sen and Thaksin are no longer in office in their respective countries, but both remain powerful. Hun Sen ruled for almost 40 years until 2003, when his eldest son, Hun Manet, became prime minister after running virtually uncontested in a sham election. Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra became the Thai prime minister last year.
The extent of their falling out became clear last month, when Hun Sen leaked a recording of a phone conversation between himself and Paetongtarn.
In the call, which was about the border dispute, Paetongtarn called Hun Sen “uncle” and told him if there was anything he wanted, she would “take care of it.” She also made disparaging comments about a senior Thai military commander.
The leaked recording caused uproar in Thailand. Critics accused her of kowtowing to Cambodia, putting her family connections before the country’s national interests. She was suspended from office by the Thai Constitutional Court earlier this month pending an investigation into ethical contraventions.
It is not clear why Hun Sen chose to turn on his former friends. He has accused Thaksin of betrayal and threatened to reveal further sensitive information about the Shinawatras.
“I never imagined someone so close could act this way,” Thaksin said later, declaring their friendship over.
Some analysts said that Hun Sen might be trying to whip up nationalism domestically to increase support for his son, Hun Manet.
Others suggest that Hun Sen has been angered by Thailand’s efforts to crack down on so-called “scam compounds” where trafficked workers are held and forced to target people around the world with online scams. This form of lucrative criminal activity has proliferated in the region in the past few years, especially in Cambodia.
“The popular narrative in Thailand is that the two men may have had some kind of personal dealings behind the scenes that did not go according to plan, and the fallout has spilled over into the realm of national interest,” said Tita Sanglee, an associate fellow at the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
Whatever his motivations, Hun Sen has succeeded in damaging Thaksin’s position, exploiting divisions between his family and the military, and creating a power vacuum in Thailand.
Meanwhile, Hun Sen “holds near absolute control in Cambodia,” and has stamped out virtually all opposition voices and independent media, Tita said.
“When he chooses to take a strong stance, militarily or politically, it has immediate and direct consequences,” he said.
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