President Gloria Arroyo is losing her grip on power in the Philippines, with large blocs of her popular base pushing for a peaceful and legal succession to head off a violent power grab, analysts say.
The US-trained economist cut a forlorn figure on Friday as she vowed to stay on despite crumbling support, with eight cabinet members bolting and two top business groups joining former president Corazon Aquino and Senate president Franklin Drilon in urging her to step down over a vote-rigging scandal.
Arroyo defiantly told critics to "take your grievances to Congress," where she faces an impeachment complaint after owning up to impropriety in last year's election, and named six men to fill the cabinet vacancies.
PHOTO: EPA
The mass resignation "has to be the death blow to the presidency," said Solita Monsod, a former economic planning secretary in the Aquino cabinet. She said it was "designed to force her [Arroyo's] hand."
"Politically, we have a very damaged situation," conceded University of the Philippines political science professor Alex Magno, who helped Arroyo in the May 2004 presidential election campaign.
He said the resignations, allies distancing themselves from her, and big business joining calls for Arroyo to hand over power to Vice President Noli de Castro have changed the dynamics of the crisis into a search for a successor.
fixing victory
The crisis blew up early last month after audio tapes surfaced in which Arroyo was purportedly heard plotting to fix a one-million-vote victory against movie icon Fernando Poe in the May 2004 presidential election. Arroyo apologized late last month for improperly telephoning an election official as Congress canvassed the returns, but denied cheating.
Her mentor and idol Aquino, who ruled through six tumultuous years of failed military coup attempts in the late 1980s, has warned of "violence" if Arroyo clings to power or waits for a divisive impeachment trial.
"The country cannot continue in its present tumultuous state. Good and effective government has become an impossible undertaking," the former leader added.
Waiting in the wings is Joseph Estrada, under house arrest and on trial for corruption, who has said he is ready to reassume the presidency that he believes Arroyo illegally grabbed from him in 2001.
political struggle
"I think this is a struggle between those who want an extra-constitutional route from here on and those who want a constitutional succession to happen from here on," Magno said.
With Arroyo digging her heels in, all eyes are now on the country's 117 Roman Catholic bishops, archbishops and cardinals, who devoted their ongoing annual retreat to tackle the political crisis, and on the generals.
Soldiers and priests were the decisive players in bloodless "people power" revolts that forced the ouster of Estrada, amid an impeachment process for alleged corruption in 2001, and late dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986.
And although the opposition managed to persuade the Supreme Court last week to suspend the collection of a new expanded value-added tax -- the centerpiece of Arroyo's hard-won legislative gains to shore up the Philippines' shaky fiscal position -- it has so far failed to muster large street protests.
However, the situation on the streets in the world's third most populous Roman Catholic nation could change next week after the bishops emerge from their retreat.
A senior bishop told reporters the group's "preferential option" was to ask Arroyo to step down.
Armed forces chief of staff General Efren Abu warned all unit commanders on Friday to refrain from taking sides amid what he described as recruitment efforts by some retired officers.
Some of these retired officers have openly advocated a "revolutionary transition government" that could shut out de Castro, the constitutional successor if Arroyo quits, is incapacitated or removed from office by impeachment.
Political analyst Amando Doronila, writing in the Philippine Daily Inquirer newspaper, believes the church and the military could state their positions "in a matter of days, in view of the breathtaking velocity of the events that have narrowed the options for a constitutional solution of the crisis."
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