A warmer and dryer plum rain season is expected this year, with more significant rainfall forecast in the latter half of next month, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday.
The nation is about to enter the plum rain season, which generally lasts from May to June.
CWA Weather Forecast Center Director Huang Chun-hsi (黃椿喜) said that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have returned to normal following a La Nina cycle, with the likelihood of a transition to El Nino high.
Photo: CNA
Ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns indicate that western areas of Taiwan are likely to experience high temperatures and reduced rainfall, Huang said, but added that those patterns are not the sole factor in predicting weather conditions.
“Based on statistical models and those of other countries, average temperatures this plum rain season are likely to be between normal and slightly higher than normal, while rainfall is likely to be between normal and slightly less than normal,” he said.
Accumulated rainfall in the season varies greatly each year, with no consistent pattern, he said.
In the plum rain season of 1980, only 193.4mm of rain fell, 247.3mm less than average, while 2012 surpassed all other years on record with 891.1mm, Huang said.
The plum rains generally begin in the first half of May in northern parts of Taiwan, while in southern areas it usually begins in the second half of May or later, he said.
The most significant rainfall generally occurs in the second half of May or the beginning of June, he added.
While accumulated rainfall in the season has not varied much in the past few years, the periods of rainfall have become more concentrated, with the frequency of short-duration, heavy rainfall also increasing significantly, Huang said.
The CWA also summarized its data for spring, which ends this month.
The average temperature from February to this month was about 1.1°C higher than average and was the third-highest since 1951, Huang said, adding that a weather station in Hsinchu County reported the highest average temperature.
However, temperatures last month were cooler than average due to multiple cold air fronts, he said.
Rainfall was mostly in the second half of February, the first half of last month and the first half of this month due to fronts from southeastern China, he said.
Accumulated rainfall in the spring was 227.5mm, only 80 percent of the average, Huang said.
The CWA only recorded 26.5 rainy days in spring this year, the fifth fewest since 1951, he added.
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