Mon, Mar 09, 2026 page2

• Experts divided on implication of PLA activity dropoff

  • By Sam Garcia / Staff writer, with CNA
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  Taiwan has not detected any Chinese military aircraft in its vicinity for nine of the past 10 days, a decline that some commentators have found unusual, while others cautioned against alarm.

  Beijing has continuously increased military pressure against Taiwan in recent years, dispatching military aircraft and vessels close to Taiwan almost daily.

  However, no more than two Chinese military aircraft have been detected around Taiwan within a 24-hour period since Feb. 28, while there were 86 incursions over the same period last year, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP) statistics compiled from Ministry of National Defense data.

  

  Visitors stand in front of a screen displaying a map of locations around Taiwan where the Chinese People's Liberation Army conducted exercises at an exhibition in Beijing on Oct. 12, 2022.

  Photo: Reuters

  This is the longest period that Chinese aircraft have not been detected in the area since AFP began compiling the data in 2024.

  Over the past 10 days, Taiwan detected an average of six Chinese military vessels per day in its surrounding waters, the same as during this period last year, data showed.

  Chinese aircraft incursions went down 42 percent in January and last month compared with the period last year, while vessel incursions went down by about 4.5 percent, AFP said.

  The drop in incursions could be tied to China’s annual “two sessions” meetings or recent personnel reorganization within the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), experts said.

  Other reasons could include US President Donald Trump’s upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) later his month, or the conflict in the Middle East.

  “I didn't expect to be worried about the cessation of PLA operations around Taiwan, but the lack of a rational explanation is disconcerting,” Drew Thompson, a senior research fellow at Nanyang Technological University, wrote on Substack on Friday last week.

  “The longer the activity gap persists, the more concerned I will be about broader implications, but I have not seen any indications that the PRC [People’s Republic of China] is preparing for any major kinetic action,” said Ben Lewis, founder of the open-source data platform PLATracker.

  Beijing might be trying to “weaken Taiwanese support for increasing national defense spending,” Institute for National Defense and Security Research research fellow Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲) said.

  However, another expert thought this is not unusual.

  “This isn’t mysterious. PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ [air defense identification zone] drop to/near zero around the time of the annual ‘two sessions’ every year,” Brian Hart, deputy director and fellow of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote on X on Saturday.

  “If this pattern persists well beyond the two sessions then it would be unusual. But I don’t think there’s evidence of anything unusual yet,” Hart said.

  Beijing may be trying to create a false impression that China is easing threats against Taiwan to deceive the US into reducing support for Taiwan, a Taiwanese security official said.

  “We must not let our guard down,” the official said.

  Additional reporting by AFP
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